Bitcoin Faces Resistance at $108,000 Amid Fed Rate Cut Hopes

US stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, have reached new all-time highs, driven by geopolitical easing and hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut as early as July. This surge in traditional markets has created a favorable environment for risk-taking across all asset classes, including cryptocurrencies. The possibility of monetary easing by the Fed is rekindling bullish scenarios, and in this climate of optimism, the question arises: is bitcoin ready to cross a new symbolic threshold?

With favorable macroeconomic signals and a renewed institutional interest, the hypothesis of BTC surpassing $112,000 is resurfacing, driven by the momentum of traditional markets. Several key factors explain this bullish momentum in futures markets: geopolitical calm, reassuring monetary signals, relaxation of trade tensions, and a general resurgence of confidence. Traders are gradually reentering risky assets, supported by a macroeconomic environment perceived as more favorable.

Despite the favorable environment created by traditional markets, bitcoin still struggles to break a decisive threshold. Three times this week, the crypto failed to break the $108,000 mark before retreating to around $107,400. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, highlights that many traders have sold covered call options against their BTC positions, which limits price momentum and volatility. This technical pressure, arising from defensive hedging strategies, acts as a temporary brake on the market’s bullish push.

However, some observers believe fundamentals remain solid. Jeff Mei, COO of exchange BTSE, considers that conditions are in place for bitcoin to surpass its previous peak of about $112,000, especially now that the Iran-Israel conflict seems behind us. Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, stated that all-time highs are coming. He notably cites progress in discussions around stablecoin regulation in the US as a catalyst.

In this context, if the Fed does indeed start a monetary pivot as early as this summer, institutional flows could pick up again, triggering a new price discovery phase for bitcoin prices. With PCE inflation stabilized at 2.3%, the market now has an additional signal that could reinforce the Federal Reserve’s trajectory toward rate cuts this summer. This figure further fuels investor optimism, both in traditional markets and in crypto. For bitcoin, this could create the conditions for a decisive break above $112,000. If the current resistance gives way, the market could well enter a new price discovery phase, with all the uncertainties but also opportunities that entails.