Bitcoin Faces Longest Bearish Divergence Since 2011 As Market Awaits 2025 Decision

Bitcoin is currently navigating a critical juncture, with a multi-year bearish divergence looming as the market approaches a pivotal decision point in late 2025. This divergence, the longest since 2011, has sparked intense scrutiny among traders and analysts who are closely monitoring the cryptocurrency's trajectory. The bearish divergence indicates that Bitcoin's price movements have been deviating from its historical trends, raising questions about its future direction.

The current setup suggests that Bitcoin is sitting on a support zone that has matched previous cycles, potentially signaling the start of a new upward phase. However, the bearish divergence remains active, and the price has not yet shown clear strength. Traders are now watching to see if this setup will end the current cycle or open a breakout path into late 2025 with fresh momentum.

Bitcoin’s long-term chart indicates that major cycle support may be forming as a historic bearish divergence nears resolution. The asset is moving within patterns that echo prior macro turning points, which could either confirm a breakout or mark the end of a multi-year impulse wave. The chart, which includes both momentum and price action indicators from 2011 to 2025, shows a rising channel with bearish divergence occurring when prices rise but momentum weakens, often signaling a top or consolidation.

The analyst behind the chart explained that the blue horizontal support could also be tracked through select moving averages. This area served as a key reversal zone during past Bitcoin cycles, offering early insight into future trend direction. If the current setup plays out like before, Bitcoin could soon shift toward a stronger impulsive trend or enter correction.

The chart highlights the longest-running bearish divergence in Bitcoin’s history, stretching across multiple years. This formation aligns with prior divergences that led to either local tops or cycle resets in earlier cycles. Such prolonged divergence typically accommodates upward momentum before losing steam across higher timeframes. This means the current impulse may have room to extend slightly before resolving into a final leg of the cycle. However, without confirmation of breakout strength, the risk of a fading rally remains in play.

Blue support trendlines across the lower indicators indicate that current market activity is still respecting cycle support. Until these lines break decisively, the existing divergence may remain in effect, pushing traders to remain cautious. Historically, divergence in Bitcoin tends to conclude after clear structural breakdowns or significant trend acceleration.

Each triangle on the chart shows where divergence began and where it was resolved in past years. The current setup mirrors 2013 and 2021 cycles in structure and slope, adding weight to the cycle argument. If history repeats, BTC could either reset around this zone or start a new impulsive breakout leg.

The key question now is whether Bitcoin’s price structure will extend into a new macro impulse or begin declining. If BTC confirms a breakout above current trendlines, it may negate the divergence and start a strong upward cycle. Alternatively, failure to break through the overhead resistance could point to the completion of the ongoing momentum phase.