Bitcoin Faces Heavy Resistance as New Whales Target $99K Break-Even

Bitcoin’s price fell below $90,700 after a recent rally stalled, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording $243 million in net outflows. The decline ended a two-day inflow streak that had brought over $1.16 billion into the funds. Fidelity’s ETF led redemptions with $312 million exiting, while Grayscale’s main and Mini Trusts totaled $116 million in outflows. According to on-chain data, the market rotation extended beyond Bitcoin as traders shifted to alternative cryptocurrencies. World Liberty Financial, a DeFi project linked to the Trump family, sold $2.5 million in wrapped Bitcoin to purchase 770 ETH. Ethereum and XRP ETFs also saw inflows of $114.7 million and $19 million, respectively.

Bitcoin’s price action is currently testing key technical levels. The Supertrend flipped to resistance at $95,121, and a successful reclaim of $94,000 would be necessary for further upside. On the downside, Fibonacci support at $90,868 and the wedge breakdown near $80,576 represent key targets for potential further declines.

Why Did This Happen?

On-chain data indicates that new Bitcoin whales are currently underwater and may look to sell near $99,000, creating a major resistance zone. These whales, holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC for less than 155 days, have a realized price around $99,000. Any movement toward this level could trigger defensive selling as holders seek to break even.

The recent outflows from Bitcoin ETFs suggest a shift in market sentiment. While BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust bucked the trend by adding $228 million in inflows, the overall pattern indicates a rotation of capital. Experts describe the exodus as portfolio rebalancing rather than a loss of conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped to the 1st percentile of its historical range, a condition that has historically preceded major price moves. Analysts are closely monitoring whether the current consolidation will lead to a breakout or a breakdown. A clean break above $95,000 with strong volume could trigger a gamma squeeze, forcing dealers to buy Bitcoin to hedge their exposure.

On the other hand, a failure to hold above $90,000 could trigger a deeper correction. The 50-day EMA around $91,745 is a key short-term level, and a decisive daily close below it would open the way to a test of the $90,000 psychological barrier.

Bitcoin’s volatility is also being watched for signs of an impending move. The current low-volatility environment may be a temporary pause in a larger trend. Institutional capital continues to flow into the market, with the CME futures basis indicating steady demand for exposure. Meanwhile, retail leverage remains muted, reducing the risk of a sharp liquidation event.

What Does This Mean for Investors?

Investors are advised to monitor key technical levels and on-chain signals for signs of trend continuation or reversal. The current price action suggests that Bitcoin is in a critical phase, where the outcome could determine whether it makes a sustained run toward $100,000 or faces further consolidation.

The presence of large institutional holders, such as MicroStrategy, which holds 673,000 BTC, may provide a floor for the price. However, the market’s sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts means that even minor changes in the broader economic environment could trigger significant price swings.

Bitcoin’s price remains underpinned by institutional demand, but the recent outflows from ETFs highlight the need for continued vigilance. The next few weeks will be critical in determining whether the market can sustain its recent momentum or whether it will face renewed selling pressure from both short-term holders and dormant supply re-entering the market.