Bitcoin Faces Crucial Test at $102,044 as Bearish Signals Mount

Bitcoin is currently facing a critical test as it clings to the MVRV +1.0σ band at $102,044. This level has historically acted as a significant support zone, and a breach could trigger a sharp drop toward the MVRV mean at $82,570. The market is now at a pivotal point that may determine whether the current cycle resets or continues.

Multiple on-chain and technical signals are turning bearish, suggesting that momentum is fading. The Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio has surged by 83.82%, reaching 56.81. This rise suggests that Bitcoin’s market cap is growing faster than its transaction volume, a potential signal of overvaluation. Historically, similar NVT spikes have coincided with local market tops or short-term corrections. While the price holds above $104K, on-chain activity fails to match the rise, hinting at weakening fundamental support. This rapid increase in NVT adds to downside pressure and implies that Bitcoin may be priced beyond its current utility.

The Stock-to-Flow ratio has declined by 12.5%, currently reading 795.16K. This drop challenges Bitcoin’s long-standing scarcity narrative that has often supported bullish long-term valuations. A falling stock-to-flow value suggests that Bitcoin’s perceived scarcity may no longer be enough to sustain high prices. If investors start questioning this core thesis, bullish conviction could erode quickly. Without renewed inflows or fresh catalysts tied to supply shocks, Bitcoin could find itself struggling to maintain current levels as demand weakens and the scarcity story loses weight.

Short liquidations surged to $5.9 million, signaling a wave of forced exits. However, long positions are gradually building, totaling $1.18 million during the same period. This pattern reveals a market split, with short-sellers getting squeezed while dip buyers enter early. However, premature long entries may backfire if the price fails to reclaim higher support zones. This rise in long exposure, without confirmation from price action, could add more volatility. If Bitcoin breaks below $102K, those same longs could fuel a deeper flush.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin remained above a crucial ascending trendline and the 0.786 Fibonacci level near $101,437, both acting as confluence support. However, the Stochastic RSI is weakening, printing 35.36 and 42.56, and entering oversold territory. While these levels typically suggest a bounce is near, bears remain in control of short-term momentum. If buyers fail to reclaim strength and push the price higher, Bitcoin could drop toward deeper retracement levels like $84K or $76K. The coming sessions are critical, with $101K as the last line of defense.

Bitcoin sits at a critical juncture as both on-chain metrics and technical indicators reflect growing bearish pressure. The $101K support remains the final stronghold for bulls. A successful defense could spark a rebound, while failure to hold may send prices tumbling toward the MVRV mean at $82,570. With NVT rising and stock-to-flow weakening, the next move will determine whether Bitcoin stabilizes or faces a sharper correction in the coming days.