Bitcoin Faces Bull Market Threat If Price Drops Below $86,000

Analyst Benjamin Cowen has suggested that the current bull market for Bitcoin (BTC) could be in jeopardy if the cryptocurrency's price falls below a critical threshold. In a recent YouTube video, Cowen shared his insights with his 904,000 subscribers, highlighting that a dip below the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) on the weekly timeframe could signal the end of the bull cycle, based on historical data.

Cowen emphasized that as long as the 50-week SMA holds, the market structure remains intact. However, a weekly close below this level would raise questions about the continuation of the bull market. He noted that the 50-week SMA is currently around $86,000, falling between $85,000 and $86,000. This indicator has historically been a reliable marker for the end of a bull cycle whenever weekly closes fall below the 50-week moving average.

Cowen also speculated that Bitcoin may test the 50-week SMA in the third quarter of 2025 but could hold it as support, suggesting that the bull cycle might persist. He pointed out that Bitcoin has tested this level in previous third quarters, indicating a pattern that could repeat. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $108,218, showing no significant change for the day.

Cowen's analysis underscores the importance of the 50-week SMA as a key support level for Bitcoin. If the cryptocurrency's price remains above this threshold, it could continue its bullish trend. However, a breach below this level would signal a potential shift in market dynamics, raising concerns about the sustainability of the current bull market. Investors and traders are advised to monitor this level closely as it could provide valuable insights into the future direction of Bitcoin's price.