Bitcoin Faces $93k-$95k Resistance as Market Momentum Shifts

Bitcoin's price momentum is facing its first significant resistance as it attempts to consolidate and break above key technical and on-chain levels, specifically the 111-Day Moving Average (111DMA) at $91.3k and the Short-Term Holder cost-basis at $93.2k. This resistance is part of a broader structural reset across various facets of the Bitcoin economy, indicating that much of the speculative excess has been flushed out during the recent downturn.

The market's momentum is encountering its first wave of meaningful resistance as the price attempts to consolidate and break above the $93k to $95k region. This price zone is significant as it marks the range low of a multi-month consolidation phase that occurred between November 2024 and February 2025. An important shift appears to be underway, with the spot price breaking the prevailing downtrend and establishing a new higher high price pattern.

Several on-chain and technical metrics are being utilized to gauge the strength of the market's momentum and evaluate the durability of this upward move. The 111DMA and the Short-Term Holder cost basis are key indicators in this analysis. The price has recently surged above both of these levels, highlighting a noteworthy degree of strength behind this upward swing. However, these levels must be broken and held for further price appreciation, as a rejection of this level would push the price back into bearish territory and return many investors to a state of meaningful unrealized loss.

Market drawdowns are challenging times for investors, as financial pain typically increases with the depth and duration of the drawdown. The prevailing drawdown has experienced a similar duration to those seen throughout the cycle, and the duration component has not reached the extreme levels normally associated with prolonged bear market regimes. This suggests that the recent drawdown may not be of bear market proportions just yet.

The recent market surge has shifted investors who have held coins for longer than one month into a profitable position, leading to a notable reduction in financial pressure and stress on these investors. This can be considered an early indication of positive market momentum if sustained.

The mvrv Ratio, which measures the degree of unrealized profit or loss held by the average investor, provides insight into the financial pressures the average investor is experiencing. During this downtrend, investor unrealized gains have fallen back to their long-term mean (MVRV of 1.74). The long-term mean of MVRV effectively acts as a support level for investor confidence, and a sustained move of MVRV back above this level would be a constructive observation.

The percentage of the circulating supply held in a profitable position remains elevated, trading at a value of 88%. The only underwater investors are those who purchased coins during the December-February period, centered around $95k and $100k. Similar to the MVRV Ratio, the percent of supply in profit has also recorded a strong bounce off its long-term mean, bolstering the assessment that a meaningful reset of investor expectations is taking place.

In the spending domain, the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio approached its break-even value during the downtrend, suggesting a neutral sentiment across investors. The price rally has driven this ratio higher and back into profit-dominated territory, indicating the onset of a meaningful recovery where profit-taking activity returns, and demand has thus far been able to absorb it.

The Sell-Side Risk Ratio, which assesses the degree of equilibrium the market has reached, remains below its low value band. This suggests that most coins moved on-chain are transacting near their original acquisition price, indicating that the current price range is no longer an attractive area for investors to take profit or loss. This is typical of consolidation ranges, where a new range expansion is required to stimulate the next wave of capital flows.

As market conditions improve, Long-Term Holder spending volumes remain relatively light, indicating that HODLing is the primary behavior amongst this cohort. The balance held by tenured investors continues to move higher, with 254k BTC migrating across the 155-day threshold since the recent low, many of which were accumulated at prices above $95k. This suggests a degree of confidence has returned, and accumulation pressures are outweighing the propensity for investors to spend and de-risk.

Historically, the Long-Term Holder cohort typically ramps up their spending pressure when the average member is holding a +350% unrealized profit margin. Reconciling this information with the spot price, the average LTH is expected to hit a 350% profit margin at the $99.9k level. As such, an uptick in sell-side pressure is anticipated as the market approaches this zone, making it an area that will likely require substantial buy-side demand to absorb the distribution and sustain upwards momentum.

Additionally, a significant concentration of coins remain held at a loss within the $95k to $98k region. As the market approaches this zone, some investors may opt to exit at or near their break-even price, introducing additional sell-side resistance. This would compound the expected increase in LTH distribution, creating an important resistance level to keep an eye on. The region above $100k has a relatively small volume of coins with a cost basis in that area. If the market can successfully navigate the sell-side pressure within the $95k to $98k corridor, it may enter a region with minimal resistance, paving the way for a run back towards price discovery and a new all-time high.