Bitcoin Faces 65% Crash to $40,000 by 2026, Analysts Predict

Bitcoin, the world's leading cryptocurrency, is facing a potential downturn as analysts predict a significant price crash. According to Xanrox, a crypto analyst on TradingView, Bitcoin is expected to decline to $40,000 by 2026. This prediction is based on the cryptocurrency's historical price cycles, which are closely tied to its halving events occurring every four years. These cycles alternate between bull markets, characterized by rapid price increases, and bear markets, marked by severe corrections.

Historically, bull markets for Bitcoin have lasted between 742 and 1,065 days, approximately 2-3 years, while bear markets have lasted between 364 and 413 days, roughly one year. Each bull run has been weaker than the previous one due to Bitcoin’s growing market capitalization. In every cycle, Bitcoin’s price crashes after a bull market, experiencing a decline between 77% to 86%. Xanrox forecasts a major Bitcoin price correction, albeit a weaker one than those of previous cycles, with the cryptocurrency expected to crash 65% to $40,000. This prediction is supported by Bitcoin’s significantly larger market capitalization and rapidly growing institutional adoption.

Xanrox shared a price chart highlighting the various halving cycles and the magnitude of each bull market rally and bear market crash since Bitcoin’s inception. The chart suggests that predicting Bitcoin’s movements with a simple chart has always been accurate, making the 65% crash prediction inevitable. Currently, Bitcoin’s market capitalization of $1.63 trillion makes it unrealistic to achieve the extreme growth needed to reach targets of $300,000, $500,000, or even $1 million, as some analysts predict. Xanrox suggests that 2025 may be a bearish year, with the next Bitcoin bull run set to begin in 2026, after the bear market.

Sharing a similar bearish sentiment, Ki Young Ju, the founder and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of CryptoQuant, has announced the end of the Bitcoin bull cycle. Ju revealed that the market should expect 6 – 12 months of choppy price action, indicating the start of the bear market. Every on-chain metric for Bitcoin is signaling a bear market, with fresh liquidity depleting while new whales are selling BTC at a significantly lower price. Bitcoin is currently trading at $82,549, marking an over 20% price crash since its all-time high of more than $109,000 this year.