Bitcoin Faces 3.6% Gains But Negative Demand Signals Price Slump

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced slight gains over the past month, increasing by 3.6% in the last 30 days. However, the leading cryptocurrency is facing a lack of apparent demand, which indicates broader market weakness that could lead to a price slump in the near term.

According to a recent analysis, Bitcoin’s new buyer demand is failing to absorb the combined supply pressure from freshly mined BTC and selling from long-term holders (LTHs). As a result, BTC’s Apparent Demand has turned negative. This imbalance between buyer demand and excessive supply has created a high-risk environment for a near-term price correction. Notably, the $100,000 level remains an important support for the flagship digital asset.

Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand measures the balance between new buying interest and the supply of coins entering the market from miners and LTHs selling. When this metric turns negative, it means that the amount of BTC being sold exceeds new purchases, indicating potential market weakness and downward price pressure. This can be considered a bearish development for two key reasons. First, it directly increases the “for sale” BTC supply, exerting downward pressure on the cryptocurrency’s price. Second, significant selling by LTHs suggests that experienced players believe the crypto market has likely reached a local top and are exiting before a potential severe market downturn.

Consequently, the market is in a vulnerable state. Any price rallies from here will likely struggle to overcome this wave of available supply, and market support may be weaker than anticipated. While not a guarantee, this on-chain signal strongly suggests a period of caution is warranted until demand shows clear signs of recovery.

However, recent on-chain analysis indicates a more optimistic outlook. The 30-day moving average (MA) of Bitcoin Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) shows signs of healthy consolidation rather than a potential local top. Additionally, easing global geopolitical tensions could catalyze a rally in risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies. Further positive macroeconomic developments may also benefit BTC, potentially leading to a cycle top much higher than currently anticipated.

Another indicator negating the possibility of a major price pullback is the steadily rising short-term holder (STH) floor price, which has surged to as high as $98,000 according to the latest on-chain data. At the time of reporting, BTC trades at $107,500, down 0.5% in the past 24 hours.