Bitcoin Faces 20 Billion Dollar Options Expiration Battle

As the crypto market braces for an unprecedented options expiration estimated at 20 billion dollars, the focus is on Bitcoin, currently trading around 107,800 dollars. The impending expiration is set to significantly influence the short-term trend of Bitcoin, with buyers and sellers locked in a strategic battle. The outcome will hinge on the buyers' ability to secure key levels before the expiration deadline.

With just hours remaining before the expiration of 20 billion dollars in Bitcoin options, the tension in the crypto market is palpable. The market is closely watching whether Bitcoin can maintain its position above 106,000 dollars, which would theoretically provide buyers with a 2.1 billion dollar advantage. Conversely, sellers are under pressure to push Bitcoin below 101,500 dollars before June 27 to limit their losses. If the current trend persists, the market could witness Bitcoin crossing a new threshold as early as this summer.

As the monthly expiration on June 27 approaches, open positions in the Bitcoin options market have reached an exceptional level of 20 billion dollars, with call options dominating at 11.2 billion dollars compared to 8.8 billion dollars for put options. This imbalance favors buyers, as a majority of put options, totaling 7.1 billion dollars, are positioned below 101,000 dollars, potentially rendering them worthless at expiration. The momentum has clearly shifted in favor of buyers, whose strategic goal is to keep Bitcoin above 106,000 dollars to maximize their gains.

The theoretical gains for buyers are distributed as follows: between 100,000 and 101,500 dollars, the result is almost neutral; between 101,500 and 102,500 dollars, buyers have a 235 million dollar advantage; between 102,500 and 104,500 dollars, the advantage increases to 750 million dollars; between 104,500 and 106,000 dollars, the advantage is 1.41 billion dollars; and between 106,000 and 108,000 dollars, buyers have a 2.1 billion dollar advantage, the most favorable zone. For sellers, forcing Bitcoin to close below 101,500 dollars is their only chance to contain losses. Otherwise, bullish investors could secure massive profits and establish a solid technical base to target 110,000 dollars as early as July.

Beyond the derivatives market, recent macroeconomic signals support a favorable context for buyers. Jerome Powell's testimony before the House Financial Services Committee indicated that several paths are possible regarding interest rates, including an earlier-than-expected cut if inflation remains moderate. This flexible tone is reinforced by comments from other Fed officials, including Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, who anticipate potential cuts as soon as the July meeting. The S&P 500 has reached a high, reflecting renewed investor confidence in risk assets. Some observers see a reallocation from government bonds to asset classes such as Bitcoin, often viewed as a hedge against inflation or an uncorrelated growth asset. This potential rotation is further supported by modest growth forecasts for S&P 500 company revenues this year, encouraging some managers to seek yields elsewhere. Even without new liquidity injections from central banks, falling bond yields could sustain Bitcoin's upward trajectory in the medium term.

In the short term, if Bitcoin holds above 106,000 dollars at the June 27 expiration, buyers could gain an immediate financial advantage and establish a favorable psychological momentum. In the medium term, monetary policy developments and the international geopolitical climate will remain key variables to watch. The foundations for a new bullish rally seem to be in place, but it remains to be seen if the market can seize the opportunity.