Bitcoin Faces $110,000 Resistance Amid Declining Transfer Volumes

Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture, with its price momentum and onchain activity suggesting a potential breakout above the $110,000 resistance level. Despite a cooling in MVRV momentum and declining transfer volumes, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential to enter a new phase of price discovery in 2025. Flipping the $108,000-$110,000 range into support is essential for sustaining upward momentum and achieving new all-time highs.

Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, a critical indicator of profitability and market sentiment, has shown signs of slowing momentum. This deceleration does not necessarily indicate an imminent downturn but rather suggests that Bitcoin may be transitioning into the late stages of its current bull cycle. The MVRV slope currently rests at 2.22, well below the historically overvalued threshold of 3.7, implying there remains substantial room for growth before reaching peak valuation levels. Analysts from CryptoQuant emphasize that a resurgence in MVRV momentum would reflect increased investor confidence and longer holding periods, which typically reduce selling pressure. Coupled with strong inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, this dynamic could catalyze a breakout beyond the recent $112,000 peak, potentially propelling BTC toward the $165,000 mark forecasted by several market experts.

Recent data reveals a notable 32% decline in Bitcoin’s onchain transfer volume, dropping from $76 billion in late May to approximately $52 billion. This reduction aligns with a broader cooling in spot trading volume, which currently hovers around $7.7 billion—significantly lower than previous cyclical highs during the ongoing bull market. Unlike earlier all-time high rallies in 2024, the recent surge to $111,000 lacked accompanying increases in spot volume, indicating diminished investor engagement. This divergence suggests that while price levels are elevated, market participants are exercising greater caution, awaiting stronger confirmation signals before committing capital. Market insights provider Alva underscores the importance of volume, stating that a high-volume push above $107,500 is the first technical trigger to light the fuse. This perspective reinforces the notion that sustainable price advances require robust trading activity to validate momentum.

Bitcoin’s price action has been confined within a range between $100,000 and $110,000, with the upper boundary representing a formidable resistance level. For BTC to maintain its bullish trajectory, it is imperative that this resistance zone, particularly the $108,000 to $110,000 range, is decisively flipped into support. Prominent analysts, including AlphaBTC and Rekt Capital, concur that overcoming this resistance is crucial for Bitcoin to initiate a sustained rally towards new all-time highs. AlphaBTC suggests that a pullback to the $104,000-$105,000 liquidity zone could provide the necessary momentum for a breakout, while a four-hour close above $109,000 would signal strong bullish conviction. Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, echoes this sentiment, identifying $109,000 as the pivotal level that must be breached to unleash upward momentum. The clustering of liquidity near $111,000 further accentuates the significance of this resistance, making it a focal point for traders and investors alike.

While Bitcoin’s general bull trend remains intact, the current phase is characterized by cautious optimism. The interplay between MVRV momentum, onchain transfer volumes, and spot trading activity will be decisive in shaping BTC’s near-term trajectory. A revival in these metrics would not only enhance market conviction but also increase the likelihood of Bitcoin entering a new price discovery phase. Market participants are advised to monitor volume indicators closely, as elevated trading activity often precedes significant price movements. The consolidation around the $108,000-$110,000 resistance zone represents a critical test of Bitcoin’s strength and investor resolve.

Bitcoin stands at a pivotal crossroads, with key technical and onchain indicators signaling the potential for a breakout above the $110,000 resistance level. Although MVRV momentum has slowed and transfer volumes have declined, these factors may reflect a natural consolidation phase within a broader bull cycle. For BTC bulls, successfully flipping the $108,000-$110,000 range into support is essential to sustain upward momentum and unlock new all-time highs. Investors should remain attentive to volume trends and market sentiment as these will be critical in confirming Bitcoin’s next major move.