Bitcoin Eyes $95K Milestone Amid ETF Surge; SUI Rallies on Trade De-escalation

Bitcoin traders are circling the $95,000 price level, with a decisive breakout poised to trigger a retest of the $100,000 mark in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, SUI, the native token of the Sui blockchain, has surged 20% in recent days amid geopolitical optimism and institutional adoption. Both assets are navigating a landscape of technical barriers, macroeconomic tailwinds, and lingering risks.

Bitcoin: The $95K Crucible

Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering near $94,200, a critical resistance zone tied to a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of its recent downtrend and a former support level from the Q4 2024 rally. A weekly close above $94,250 would unlock momentum toward the next target of $99,500, but the $95,620 barrier looms large. This level is backed by a cluster of 1.6 million Bitcoin addresses (holding 1.09 million BTC) in loss, creating heavy selling pressure. Analysts warn that breaking this threshold requires sustained buying volume or macro catalysts.

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) and Coinbase Premium Index are trending upward, signaling improving sentiment. On-chain data reveals that Bitcoin’s total supply in profit has surpassed the 16.7 million BTC "threshold of optimism", a historically bullish indicator. For context, this metric preceded major rallies in 2016, 2020, and 2024.

Institutional demand is the linchpin:
- U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.2 billion in inflows in a single week in early April, with total assets under management (AUM) hitting $103 billion.
- BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone attracted $346 million weekly, while ARK Invest’s bullish 2030 price target of $2.4 million per BTC underscores long-term optimism.

Macroeconomic factors are also supportive:
- President Trump’s push for Fed rate cuts has weakened the U.S. dollar to a 2024 low, boosting Bitcoin’s appeal as a "digital gold" alternative.
- Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 has dropped to 0.65, down from near-perfect alignment in 2022, reinforcing its status as an independent asset class.

SUI’s Rally: Trade War Truce and Institutional Validation

SUI, the native token of the Sui blockchain, has surged 20% to $2.70, breaking a downtrend that began in early 2025. The catalyst? A de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions under President Trump’s administration, which reduced fears of tariff-driven economic slowdowns.

Technical and institutional tailwinds:
- SUI broke above its 21-day and 50-day moving averages, forming a bullish falling wedge pattern. Analysts project near-term targets at $2.35 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and $5.00 (a previous all-time high).
- Interactive Brokers added SUI to its crypto lineup, enabling trading in 160+ countries. Canary Capital also filed for an SUI ETF, signaling institutional confidence.

Ecosystem growth fuels optimism:
- Sui Network’s total value locked (TVL) hit $1.6 billion, a 9% increase in 24 hours, driven by DeFi projects like Cetus ($105M TVL) and NAVI Protocol ($135M TVL).
- Innovations like the SuiPlay0X1 gaming console and USDC integration highlight scalability and real-world use cases.

Risks and Volatility: The Flip Side

Bitcoin’s path to $100K isn’t without hurdles:
- Whale dominance: 2% of Bitcoin addresses control 92% of BTC, creating vulnerability to panic selling.
- Low trading volume: Daily volume dipped to $37 billion, 75% below July 2024 peaks, suggesting muted momentum.

For SUI, risks include:
- Macro fragility: A recession or Fed reluctance to cut rates could derail the rally. SUI dropped 30% to $1.71 after its April peak, underscoring volatility.
- Altcoin season skepticism: While SUI is rising, broader crypto markets remain sluggish, with Ethereum’s struggles and lack of Fed liquidity limiting broader momentum.

Conclusion: A Technical and Fundamental Crossroads

Bitcoin’s ascent to $95K hinges on overcoming $95,620 resistance, a feat that could unlock a retest of $100K and set the stage for a $150,000 milestone by year-end, per analysts like Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau. SUI’s $2.70 breakout, meanwhile, aligns with a bullish falling wedge pattern, with $5.00 as its next target—if it can sustain momentum amid macro risks.

The data speaks clearly:
- ETF inflows into Bitcoin are at record levels, with $2.2 billion in a single week.
- SUI’s ecosystem TVL has surged 9% in a day, a sign of growing adoption.
- Both assets benefit from a weaker dollar and decoupling from equities, but Bitcoin’s 89% mined supply and SUI’s 25 million active accounts (by late 2024) cement their long-term fundamentals.

Traders will monitor Bitcoin’s $82,690 support and SUI’s $1.55 Fibonacci floor as critical defensive lines. Breakouts here could ignite a sustained rally, but without sustained volume and macro stability, the path to new highs remains fraught with uncertainty.

In this volatile environment, Bitcoin and SUI are testing the limits of technical resistance and institutional conviction. The next few weeks could decide whether these assets carve out new all-time highs or retreat into consolidation.