Bitcoin Eyes $95,000 Again as Market Stress Continues to Ease

Bitcoin’s price has shown signs of stabilization in early 2026, with the Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric approaching the neutral 0.0 level. This suggests a reduction in unrealized losses among recent buyers and indicates improving sentiment. Despite a mild pullback in the past 24 hours, the weekly trend remains positive. Investors are watching whether Bitcoin can maintain support above key price levels and sustain the upward move.

Bitcoin spot ETFs posted significant outflows in the first full trading week of 2026, shedding $681 million in combined net assets. The largest redemption occurred on January 3, when products lost $486 million. This reversal followed early inflows at the start of the year, as macroeconomic uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks pushed investors toward risk-off positioning. Institutional investors have also been reevaluating their exposure amid shifting market conditions.

Bitcoin’s price has been trading near $92,000, with technical indicators pointing to a potential breakout above $95,000. The 20-day moving average is currently converging with the 50-day moving average, a key signal that traders monitor for trend continuation or reversal. The failure to hold above $95,000 has triggered profit-taking, indicating short-term uncertainty. A sustained move above $95,000 could open the path for a rally toward $101,500, based on current volume and liquidation patterns.

Why Did This Happen?

Market conditions turned risk-off in early 2026 due to shifting expectations around monetary policy and rising geopolitical tensions. Vincent Liu of Kronos Research noted that reduced risk appetite is spilling into the crypto market as traders wait for clearer signals from central banks. Investors are closely watching upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index data and Federal Reserve guidance to determine when rate cuts might resume. Until then, positioning remains cautious, with capital shifting toward traditional assets like gold and stocks.

The reversal in ETF inflows highlights the impact of macroeconomic factors on Bitcoin’s price action. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a sharp decline in inflows after initial strength in the first two trading days of the year. The trend reflects broader market uncertainty rather than a fundamental change in Bitcoin’s value proposition. Investors are now weighing the potential for rate cuts against ongoing geopolitical risks, which have pushed capital away from high-volatility assets.

How Did Markets Respond?

Bitcoin’s price has shown a pattern of consolidation in recent weeks, with daily charts displaying higher lows and higher highs. This suggests that short-term holders are beginning to see positive returns, although most remain underwater. The market is currently testing key resistance levels, with a retest of support near $89,400 viewed as a likely scenario. A sustained breakout above $95,000 would require consistent volume beyond recent spikes driven by futures markets.

Altcoins have mirrored Bitcoin’s recovery, though with more muted moves. Traders remain selective, favoring high-liquidity assets over speculative tokens. This behavior reflects cautious optimism rather than aggressive risk-taking. The overall market structure indicates that participants are willing to buy dips but remain sensitive to resistance levels. This dynamic could prolong the current consolidation phase until spot demand overtakes leveraged momentum.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring the behavior of short-term holders as Bitcoin approaches the $99,000 realized price threshold. A break above this level could flip the NUPL metric into positive territory, signaling a shift in investor sentiment. This has historically been a prerequisite for sustained bullish momentum in past cycles. Until then, most short-term holders remain underwater, which could trigger selling pressure if prices drop rapidly.

The broader market is also watching for signs of institutional demand and regulatory developments. Major U.S. banks, including Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, have taken steps to increase Bitcoin exposure through ETFs and investment services. This trend could signal a shift in institutional adoption, which could provide further support for Bitcoin’s price. However, until this demand is reflected in spot trading volume, the market remains range-bound.

Bitcoin’s ability to maintain support above key levels will be crucial in the coming sessions. A sustained move above $95,000 would likely trigger short covering and forced liquidations. This could open the path for a 13% rally toward $101,500. However, a failure to break through resistance could lead to a retest of the $89,400 support level. Investors should remain cautious as the market continues to balance between bullish momentum and lingering risk-off sentiment.