Bitcoin Eyes 117% Gain As Key Resistance Levels Tested

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading within a defined range over the past six months, with onchain indicators suggesting a potential upward breakout toward $117,000 or higher. The short-term holder (STH) cost basis, which represents the average purchase price of investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days, has been a key metric in this analysis. This cost basis has formed a well-defined range from $78,000 to $110,000, with the upper boundary currently standing at $117,113. If Bitcoin retests this upper boundary, it could signal a move toward $117,000 in the short term.

The market value realized value (MVRV) metric, which measures whether an asset is overvalued, also suggests that Bitcoin has room for further expansion. The upper MVRV band is around $123,000, indicating that the unrealized profit value has not yet reached an extreme level. This metric, combined with the STH cost basis, provides a bullish outlook for Bitcoin's price movement.

Analysts have also noted that Bitcoin is retesting its multimonth descending trendline, with a key breakout level at $109,000-$110,000. A daily close above this level could confirm a breakout and push Bitcoin to fresh all-time highs. Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that the downward trendline at $109,000 is now a critical level for Bitcoin to break through. Fellow analyst Jelle opined that a close above the upper boundary of a bull flag at $110,000 on the daily time frame could target $130,000, according to the analyst's forecast.

Several Bitcoin traders are cautiously optimistic about a decisive break of the resistance at $109,000. This optimism is based on the current onchain and technical indicators, which suggest that Bitcoin's price has the potential to continue its upward trajectory. However, it is important to note that while these indicators provide valuable insights, they are not the sole determinants of Bitcoin's value. Market sentiment, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic conditions also play significant roles in shaping the price of Bitcoin.

In conclusion, the analysis of Bitcoin's STH cost basis and other onchain indicators suggests that the cryptocurrency's price has the potential to reach $117,000. This projection is based on the current market dynamics and the behavior of short-term holders. However, investors should consider a range of factors when evaluating the potential price movements of Bitcoin and not rely solely on onchain metrics. The next key level to watch is the $109,000-$110,000 range, where a breakout could confirm a move toward fresh all-time highs.