Bitcoin Expected to Trade in Range as Volatility Cools

As the third quarter of 2025 begins, Bitcoin is expected to enter a phase of ranged trading, according to Bitfinex. This outlook is based on the current market conditions and the analysis provided by the cryptocurrency exchange. The recent struggle for a breakout to $110,000 or higher signals a potential consolidation phase, with Bitcoin's price hovering near $107,000 after recovering from lows of $84,000 seen in April.

Bitfinex analysts noted a slowdown in on-chain and derivatives activity, which comes after a period of volatility influenced by geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Iran conflict. The macroeconomic environment has also played a significant role in dictating the action for risk assets. Despite the market having flushed out excess leverage, the lack of upside momentum, including in the exchange-traded funds market, could see Bitcoin mirror the average of just 6% gain between July and the end of September, a trend observed since 2013.

The recent compression in price action reflects a cooling in both on-chain and derivatives activity, with declining spot volumes, reduced taker buy pressure, and a drop in open interest. This highlights that the market is transitioning from an aggressive impulse to a ranging phase. For new all-time highs to be reclaimed, a catalyst in the form of macro relief, strong ETF flow momentum, or a breakout in global liquidity will be necessary.

Bitcoin’s key levels include $100,000 as a major support area, while the short-term holder’s realized price level at $98,700 offers a critical structural zone for accumulation. BTC bulls may target a breakout above $110,000, but Q3 has historically been a period of low volatility and subdued directional movement. With an average of just +6%, price action will be more within a consolidation range.

This period of ranged trading presents an opportunity for investors to engage in strategic trading within the defined range, potentially capitalizing on short-term price movements. However, it also suggests a period of reduced volatility, which may limit the potential for significant gains or losses. Traders and investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on risk management and strategic positioning within the anticipated range.

The stability in Bitcoin's price is likely to have a ripple effect on the broader cryptocurrency market. Other digital assets may experience similar range-bound trading patterns as market participants adjust their strategies in response to the prevailing conditions. This period of stability could provide a respite from the volatility that has characterized the cryptocurrency market in recent months, allowing for a more measured and deliberate approach to trading and investment.