Bitcoin's US Exchange Volumes Rise, Signaling Potential Rally

US-based crypto trading platforms are regaining influence over Bitcoin’s (BTC) token transfer volumes, which could potentially spark a rally in the latter half of 2025. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. highlighted that the "US vs. off-shore ratio," which measures token transfer volumes between US-regulated and offshore exchanges, showed a decline in US exchange dominance after BTC reached an all-time high in January. This trend reversal suggests that BTC transfer volumes on US exchanges are beginning to rise again, aligning with previous bull market rallies.

A key technical indicator in this trend is the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing above the 365-day SMA. Historically, this crossover has preceded major price rallies. For instance, when this signal occurred at $60,000, Bitcoin began a rally within one week, suggesting a potential price surge in the coming weeks.

Verified onchain analyst Boris Vest also noted that Bitcoin is still undervalued. In a post on CryptoQuant, the analyst explained that Bitcoin exchange reserves have fallen to 2018 levels, with only 2.43 million BTC held on exchanges compared to 3.4 million in 2021. This indicates long-term holding and reduced supply. The Bitcoin stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) at 14.3 further highlights that significant purchasing power remains, as the ratio is below 2021 levels. According to the analyst, this suggests that the bull market and buying pressure are likely to continue.

Markets analyst Dom pointed out that Bitcoin’s recent multimonth downtrend breakout coincides with BTC flipping the monthly VWAP into support for the first time since January. The Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is a technical indicator that calculates the average price weighted by trading volume. Traders use VWAP to assess trend shifts, identify support or resistance, and gauge whether an asset is overbought or oversold. Dom noted that bulls have successfully held these levels for four days, something not seen in months, and suggested that a move above the previous day's high could push BTC near $90,000.

However, Alphractal founder João Wedson remained cautious with Bitcoin near $86,000. He explained that waiting for a pullback if Bitcoin breaks above this level is the right approach, or bearish control might prevail. This echoes Alphractal's analysis of $86,300 as a key resistance zone with the potential of becoming a bull trap.