Bitcoin's Evolving Sell-Pressure Dynamics: Implications for a Market at a Pivotal Inflection Point

Bitcoin's market structure in November 2025 reflects a precarious equilibrium, shaped by diverging on-chain signals and macroeconomic forces. After a sharp correction from an all-time high of $126,000 to a fragile trading range between $81,000 and $91,000, the cryptocurrency now faces a critical juncture. On-chain data reveals a market under structural stress, with elevated sell pressure from loss-bearing holders and overhead supply zones acting as formidable barriers to recovery. Yet, converging cost-basis metrics near $80,000 suggest a resilient floor, hinting at a potential inflection point where buyer demand could outweigh bearish forces.

Structural Support at $80,000: A Convergence of Investor Conviction

Bitcoin has found a defensive bulwark near $80,000, where multiple on-chain cost-basis metrics align. The mean cost basis of active supply, U.S. spot ETF inflows, and the 2024 yearly cohort cost basis all cluster in this range, indicating a shared acquisition price among diverse market participants-active traders, ETF holders, and long-term investors according to MEXC analysis. This convergence creates a structural support band, as sellers would face significant losses if forced to liquidate at these levels. According to a report by MEXC, this alignment reflects "strong investor demand and conviction," reducing the likelihood of cascading sell-offs and increasing the credibility of rebounds.

The psychological significance of this level is further reinforced by historical patterns. When Bitcoin trades near its mean cost basis, it often triggers defensive buying from holders seeking to protect their cost structures.

This dynamic suggests that the $80,000 range is not merely a technical level but a structural floor underpinned by collective investor behavior.

Overhead Supply: A Cap on Recovery and a Source of Fragility

Despite this support, Bitcoin remains trapped under a dense overhead supply zone spanning $93,000 to $120,000. This cluster, which includes the critical Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis at $101.5k, acts as a gravitational pull on the price, capping recovery attempts and amplifying downside risks. Data from The Cryptonomist reveals that 6.7 million BTC-approximately 38% of the total supply-is currently held at a loss, the highest level in this cycle. This loss-bearing supply, held by both long-term and short-term holders, signals a top-heavy market structure where sellers are incentivized to offload assets to mitigate further losses as reported by .

The STH Cost Basis at $101.5k remains a pivotal threshold. As long as Bitcoin fails to reclaim this level, bearish conditions persist, as short-term holders continue to realize losses and contribute to a fragile market structure according to Coinmonks analysis. The inability to break through this overhead supply not only stifles upward momentum but also increases the risk of further corrections, as sellers in this range gain liquidity and trigger a feedback loop of downward pressure.

Macro and Institutional Factors: A Market in Transition

Bitcoin's valuation is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic forces and institutional behavior. The MVRV Z-Score, a metric measuring the ratio of market value to realized value, currently hovers near 1, indicating that speculative froth has been largely purged from the market. This normalization suggests a shift from speculative trading to more fundamental-driven valuation, a trend often observed during cyclical bottoms.

Miner economics further underscore this transition. With Bitcoin trading below the average mining cost, the Mining Costs-to-Price Ratio stands at 1.15, signaling miner capitulation. Historically, this metric has preceded strong rebounds, as inefficient miners are forced to sell, reducing future supply and creating a scarcity-driven rebound.

Meanwhile, institutional flows remain resilient. Asset managers are treating the 2025 correction as a re-accumulation opportunity, reflecting confidence in Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals. This contrasts with retail sentiment, as measured by the Fear & Greed Index, which currently reflects extreme fear-a level last seen during the 2022 market bottom according to Coinmonks data. The divergence between institutional and retail sentiment highlights a potential catalyst for a reversal, as institutional buying could eventually outweigh retail selling pressure.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Inflection Point

Bitcoin's market structure in November 2025 is defined by a delicate balance between structural support and overhead supply. The convergence of cost-basis metrics near $80,000 suggests a resilient floor, while the overhead supply zone between $93,000 and $120,000 remains a formidable barrier. On-chain data and macroeconomic indicators point to a market in transition, where speculative froth has been replaced by fundamental-driven valuation and institutional confidence.

For investors, the current environment presents both risks and opportunities. A sustained break above the STH cost basis at $101.5k could trigger a wave of buying from short-term holders and ETF inflows, unlocking a new phase of accumulation. Conversely, a breakdown below $80,000 would likely exacerbate loss realization and deepen the bearish phase. As the market navigates this inflection point, the interplay between on-chain behavior and macroeconomic forces will remain critical in determining Bitcoin's trajectory.