Bitcoin, Ethereum End First Quarter 2025 Down 6.49%, 37.98%

Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, are set to conclude the first quarter of 2025 in the red, marking their worst performance in years. Ethereum has experienced a significant decline of 37.98% over the quarter, its worst first-quarter performance since 2018. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has seen a 6.49% decrease, its worst first-quarter performance since 2020.

Analysts have expressed skepticism about a sudden price surge before the end of the quarter. Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal stated that a "vertical swing up" into the end of the quarter looks unlikely. This cautious outlook is attributed to the broader economic uncertainties and the lack of clarity on US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans, which are expected to be clearer by mid-April.

Historically, the first quarter has been a strong period for both cryptocurrencies. Since 2017, Ethereum has averaged a 78.23% gain in the first quarter, while Bitcoin has seen an average return of 51.62% since 2013. However, the current market conditions have not favored such gains. The broader market sentiment has turned fearful, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index reading a "Neutral" score of 47 as of March 26.

Some analysts predict that Bitcoin may see its next significant rally in the coming weeks. Crypto commentator Colin Talks Crypto suggested that Bitcoin could begin its "next major blast-off" around April 30. Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten also predicted a more than 50% chance that Bitcoin will hit all-time highs before the end of June.

Despite these predictions, the current market conditions suggest a more cautious approach. The ETH/BTC ratio, which shows Ethereum’s relative strength to Bitcoin, is at its lowest point since May 2020, sitting at 0.2348. This indicates that Ethereum has underperformed compared to Bitcoin in the current market environment.

The rest of the crypto market has followed the downtrend of the two largest cryptocurrencies, with the entire crypto market capitalization declining 11.65% since January 1. This downturn is attributed to a combination of factors, including regulatory uncertainties, market sentiment, and the broader economic climate.

In conclusion, the first quarter of 2025 is likely to end with Bitcoin and Ethereum in the red, with no significant price surge in sight. The market is experiencing a period of consolidation rather than a rapid recovery, as investors adopt a cautious approach due to ongoing regulatory scrutiny and broader economic uncertainties. The absence of a "vertical swing up" suggests that the market is not experiencing the same level of speculative fervor that characterized previous bull runs.