Bitcoin, Ethereum Prices Fluctuate Amid Iran-US Tensions, ETF Inflows Surge 85%

Bitcoin and Ethereum exhibited modest price movements on June 26, 2025, amidst escalating geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties. The recent declaration by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei of victory over the U.S. significantly influenced market sentiment, leading to cautious investor behavior. Bitcoin briefly approached $108,000 before retracing, while Ethereum experienced a slight uptick, reflecting a mix of optimism and caution among investors.

James Toledano, COO of Unity Wallet, highlighted the Iran-Israel conflict as the primary driver of Bitcoin’s price volatility. He noted that the recent recovery in Bitcoin’s price is linked to broader macroeconomic trends, including a weakening U.S. dollar, declining oil prices, and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Additionally, sustained inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have provided technical support, particularly around the $100,000 to $103,000 price range. These factors suggest that geopolitical risks are intricately connected with traditional market drivers in shaping crypto valuations.

Despite the heightened geopolitical risks, U.S.-based Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have seen a resurgence in inflows. After a sharp decline to $6.4 million on June 20, Bitcoin ETFs attracted $547.7 million in inflows by June 25, signaling renewed investor interest. Ethereum ETFs similarly rebounded from $11.3 million in outflows to $60.4 million in inflows within the same period. This trend reflects a cautious but growing confidence in crypto assets as a hedge or alternative investment during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.

The recent ceasefire announcement between Iran and the United States, brokered by President Trump, has helped ease immediate fears of a large-scale conflict. While sporadic missile exchanges occurred post-ceasefire, market participants appear cautiously optimistic, with 93% of Myriad Markets users expecting the ceasefire to hold at least through the end of the week. This sentiment is crucial in stabilizing crypto markets, which had seen $701 million in liquidations during the height of the conflict.

Looking ahead, 77% of Myriad Markets users predict that Ayatollah Khamenei will remain in power through September, reflecting expectations of political continuity in Iran despite ongoing tensions. Khamenei’s assertion of Iran’s military capabilities, including strikes on key U.S. bases, reinforces the complex geopolitical landscape that investors must navigate. The crypto market’s resilience amid these challenges highlights its evolving role as both a speculative asset and a potential safe haven during geopolitical crises.

In conclusion, Bitcoin and Ethereum’s recent price dynamics illustrate the profound influence of geopolitical events on cryptocurrency markets. While short-term volatility remains elevated due to the Iran-U.S. conflict, renewed ETF inflows and a tentative ceasefire have contributed to cautious optimism among investors. Maintaining awareness of geopolitical developments and macroeconomic indicators will be essential for market participants seeking to navigate this complex environment effectively.