Bitcoin and Ethereum's Price Resilience: Critical Support Levels and On-Chain Sentiment in November 2025

The cryptocurrency market in November 2025 remains a study in contrasts, with Bitcoin and Ethereum navigating a landscape of heightened volatility, institutional participation, and evolving on-chain dynamics. As investors assess short-to-medium-term price resilience, critical support levels and on-chain sentiment metrics emerge as pivotal indicators. This analysis synthesizes recent data to evaluate the structural underpinnings of these two leading assets.

Bitcoin: A Fragile Equilibrium

Bitcoin's price trajectory in November 2025 has been marked by significant downward pressure, with the asset falling below $90,000 and erasing annual gains. Analysts have identified three critical support levels to monitor: the Active Realized Price at $89,400 and the True Market Mean at $82,400. These levels, historically robust during prior cycles, now serve as key psychological and technical benchmarks. A breakdown below these thresholds could trigger further selling, with the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) model suggesting a worst-case scenario of $45,500. However, current on-chain analyses lean toward a more moderate bottoming process around $80,000.

On-chain metrics underscore Bitcoin's precarious positioning. The asset remains within a fragile range bounded by the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis at $102.7k and the True Market Mean at $81.3k. While prices have narrowly held above the True Market Mean, elevated realized losses and selling pressure from both recent and seasoned holders persist as risks. This dynamic reflects a market grappling with divergent expectations: short-term profit-taking by retail investors versus long-term accumulation by institutional players.

Ethereum: Fair Value Amid Structural Shifts

Ethereum's performance in November 2025 has been equally tumultuous, closing the month with a 21.16% loss despite record trading volumes. Spot trading activity surged to $375 billion, driven by Ethereum spot ETFs, which accounted for $35 billion in volume. Binance dominated this activity, handling $198 billion in Ethereum spot trades. Despite the high volume, on-chain metrics suggest Ethereum is trading near fair value, with a Realized Price of $2,315 and an MVRV ratio of 1.27. These indicators imply a balanced market without extreme overvaluation or undervaluation.

Critical support levels for Ethereum remain in focus. A close above $3,400 could reinforce bullish momentum, while a drop below $3,000 would signal renewed bearish sentiment. Holder distribution data reveals a concentrated landscape, with the ETH2 Beacon Deposit Contract controlling 60% of the total supply through staking. Exchanges like Binance and Coinbase also hold substantial ETH, reflecting the continued role of centralized platforms in liquidity provision. Meanwhile, long-term holders have added 17 million ETH to accumulation wallets in 2025, a trend that could stabilize prices if macroeconomic conditions improve.

On-Chain Sentiment: A Mixed Picture

On-chain sentiment for both assets remains mixed. For Bitcoin, the elevated selling pressure and fragile support levels highlight a market in transition, where institutional buying may offset retail-driven volatility. Ethereum's fair valuation and strong ETF-driven volume suggest resilience, but the decline in stablecoin transfer volume by 19% signals reduced utility-driven demand. This divergence between speculative and fundamental activity underscores the need for caution.

Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty

The short-to-medium-term outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum hinges on their ability to hold critical support levels and stabilize on-chain sentiment. For Bitcoin, a sustained recovery above $80,000 could rekindle bullish momentum, while a breakdown toward $45,500 would test the mettle of long-term holders. Ethereum's path appears more balanced, with fair valuation metrics and ETF-driven inflows providing a floor, though structural concentration in staking and exchange wallets remains a risk. Investors must remain vigilant, balancing technical analysis with macroeconomic signals as the market evolves.