Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Discovery: Macro-Driven Catalysts and On-Chain Dynamics in October 2025

As October 2025 unfolds, the crypto markets are witnessing a confluence of macroeconomic tailwinds and robust on-chain fundamentals that are reshaping the price trajectories of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). With central banks pivoting toward dovish policies, institutional adoption accelerating, and on-chain metrics flashing green, both assets are positioned for a compelling phase of price discovery. Let's dissect the forces at play.

Macroeconomic Catalysts: Dovish Central Banks and Dollar Weakness

The U.S. Federal Reserve's 0.25% rate cut in September 2025 marked a pivotal shift in global monetary policy, creating a fertile environment for risk-on assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, as noted in Bitcoin's "Uptober" outlook. This dovish pivot, coupled with a weakening U.S. dollar, has driven capital into non-correlated assets, with Bitcoin ETFs alone attracting $4 billion in monthly inflows, according to the macro outlook for Bitcoin. The easing of real yields-historically a drag on crypto valuations-has further amplified demand, as investors seek higher returns in a low-interest-rate world.

Ethereum, meanwhile, is benefiting from its stronger correlation with traditional markets. Its price movements have historically mirrored the S&P 500, suggesting that as equities stabilize in Q4, Ethereum could see a rebound, per a Fed policies analysis. With the asset currently trading at an oversold RSI level and a 24% average Q4 return over the past decade, per a recent price prediction, the stage is set for a technical and fundamental-driven rally. A backtest of buying ETH when RSI-14 falls below 30 and holding for 30 trading days from 2022 to 2025 shows an average cumulative return of 3.3%, slightly outperforming the benchmark. The strategy's win rate peaks at 64% within the first two weeks, though it declines to 46% by day 30, indicating that shorter holding periods may enhance success rates.

Bitcoin's On-Chain Resilience: NVT and Transactional Utility

Bitcoin's on-chain metrics in October 2025 tell a story of sustained utility and institutional confidence. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio-a key valuation metric-has stabilized at a "golden-cross" level of 1.51, indicating that Bitcoin's market value is in harmony with its transactional throughput. This ratio, calculated by dividing market cap by 24-hour transaction volume, suggests the asset is neither overvalued nor undervalued, but rather in a balanced state of price discovery.

Transaction volumes remain robust, with 390–400K daily transactions, while active wallet growth has surged to 54 million, an 11.4% YoY increase. These figures underscore Bitcoin's role as both a store of value and a medium of exchange, even as ETF inflows dominate the narrative. The hash rate of 675 EH/s and mining difficulty of 85.1T further reinforce the network's security, deterring speculative volatility.

Ethereum's Ecosystem Expansion: Smart Contracts and Wallet Growth

Ethereum's price discovery in 2025 is being driven by its evolving ecosystem. The Pectra upgrade has pushed staking to a record 35.8 million ETH, while decentralized exchange (DEX) volume surged 47% in October. Smart contract activity now accounts for 62% of daily transactions, with DeFi protocols contributing 25% of total volume. These metrics highlight Ethereum's transition from a speculative asset to a foundational layer for decentralized finance.

Wallet growth is another critical driver. Ethereum's active wallet count hit 123 million in 2025, with 350,000 new wallets added weekly, largely fueled by Layer 2 adoption. This surge in user base, combined with Ethereum ETFs projected to attract $28.5 billion in inflows by year-end, positions the asset for a multi-month rally.

The XRP Catalyst: Regulatory Clarity and Institutional Inflows

While Bitcoin and Ethereum dominate the narrative, XRP's impending ETF decisions (October 18–25) could unlock billions in institutional capital, according to the earlier price prediction. This regulatory clarity for XRP-long mired in litigation-serves as a macroeconomic wildcard, potentially spilling over into broader market sentiment.

Conclusion: A Macro-On-Chain Symbiosis

The October 2025 price discovery for Bitcoin and Ethereum is a masterclass in the interplay between macroeconomic tailwinds and on-chain fundamentals. Dovish central banks, ETF inflows, and a weakening dollar are creating a risk-on environment, while robust transaction volumes, wallet growth, and smart contract activity are anchoring value. As Ethereum's ecosystem expands and Bitcoin's NVT ratio stabilizes, both assets are poised to outperform traditional markets in Q4. For investors, the message is clear: macro and on-chain signals are aligning for a new bull phase.