Bitcoin and Ethereum: Navigating the Structural Shift into a Bearish Regime

The cryptocurrency market has entered a critical juncture in November 2025, marked by a confirmed structural shift into a bearish regime for both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Technical indicators, momentum metrics, and institutional sentiment collectively signal a deepening correction, with implications for short-term volatility and long-term positioning. This analysis dissects the mechanics of the breakdown, the role of key indicators, and the strategic considerations for investors navigating this phase.

Structural Breakdown: Bearish Regime Confirmed

The Bitcoin Bull-Bear Structure Index has remained firmly in bearish territory since November 11, 2025, with the BEAR line plunging to -36%, reflecting overwhelming selling pressure. This shift aligns with Ethereum's trajectory, where failed bullish defenses and collapsing momentum have confirmed a structural breakdown. Market analyst Tony Severino notes that while Bitcoin remains in an uptrend, overhead resistance is "stacked," and a bear has confirmed entry, raising the risk of a broader bear market.

The four-year-cycle, historically a reliable predictor for Bitcoin, now faces uncertainty. Severino suggests this cycle may be broken or could re-enter a bearish phase in 2026. Meanwhile, Raoul Pal attributes the delayed cycle to extended debt maturities and weak ISM readings, pushing the altcoin season and Bitcoin's potential rally to Q2 2026. The Altcoin Season Index, currently at 37, remains far below levels indicative of widespread altcoin outperformance, underscoring the market's subdued state.

Momentum Indicators: Bearish Crossovers and Oversold Conditions

Technical momentum metrics reinforce the bearish narrative. Bitcoin trades below $90,000, with its RSI at 38-a level consistent with subdued bullish momentum-and the MACD histogram showing a bearish crossover. . Ethereum, meanwhile, remains below $3,000, with its RSI at 29.47, signaling an oversold condition that may hint at short-term rebounds but not a reversal of the downtrend.

Volume analysis further validates the bearish bias. Both assets exhibit increased selling pressure on down days, with limited institutional buying despite retail interest in altcoins like XRP. Ethereum's price action below 10- and 20-day EMAs, coupled with a bearish MACD, confirms the continuation of the downtrend. For November, Ethereum has declined 21.16%, reflecting broader market selloffs.

Short-Term and Long-Term Implications

In the short term, the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Index and Futures Flow Index suggest stabilization, with short-term selling pressure easing and the 30-day fair value at $99,200 indicating a potential turning point. However, this does not negate the bearish regime; rather, it highlights the possibility of a consolidation phase before further declines.

Long-term positioning must account for the extended cycle. Pal's projection of a 2026 peak hinges on macroeconomic normalization and debt resolution, but investors should remain cautious. The structural weaknesses in Bitcoin and Ethereum-confirmed by technical breakdowns and momentum indicators-suggest that any rally in 2026 may be delayed and volatile.

Strategic Considerations for Investors

For short-term traders, the focus should be on risk management. Positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum should be hedged against further corrections, with stop-loss levels aligned to key support zones. Altcoin exposure remains limited, given the Altcoin Season Index's suboptimal reading.

Long-term investors, however, may find opportunities in the current environment. The oversold conditions in Ethereum and the potential for a 2026 cycle peak offer a window for strategic accumulation, provided macroeconomic risks are mitigated. Whale accumulation and hidden bullish divergences in Ethereum's technical patterns also hint at gradual recovery potential.

Conclusion

The structural shift into a bearish regime for Bitcoin and Ethereum is firmly confirmed by technical indicators, momentum metrics, and institutional analysis. While short-term stabilization signs exist, the broader trend remains bearish, with implications for volatility and positioning. Investors must balance caution with strategic foresight, recognizing that the current phase may set the stage for a delayed cycle peak in 2026. As the market navigates this transition, disciplined risk management and macroeconomic vigilance will be paramount.