When Will Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin Find a Market Floor in 2026? A Deep Dive into Bear Market Signals and Bull-Market Resets

The crypto market in late 2025 is at a crossroads. A 23% drop in the global crypto market cap from $3.8 trillion to $3.2 trillion has sparked debates about whether this is the start of a bear market or a healthy correction within a larger bull cycle. For Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin, the answer hinges on historical patterns, on-chain metrics, and macroeconomic catalysts. Let's dissect the evidence.

Bitcoin: A Halving Bull Cycle or a Bear Market Countdown?

Bitcoin's 2024 halving event-a reduction in block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC-historically marks the start of a bull phase. However, the current drawdown, with Bitcoin dropping 27% from its $126,000 peak to $92,000, has triggered bear market alarms. The Pi-Cycle Top Indicator suggests the final Bitcoin peak will occur between June and September 2026, with the MVRV Z-Score signaling a risk zone at $174,000–$203,000. Meanwhile, the Global Liquidity Index, expected to peak between March and May 2026, aligns with these signals, hinting at a potential market top.

Critically, Bitcoin's bear market historically begins one to four weeks after the final top, with confirmation six to ten weeks later. If the peak occurs in summer 2026, the bear market could confirm by November 2026. However, bulls argue that a shift in Federal Reserve policy-such as rate cuts or liquidity injections-could extend the bull run into 2027, defying historical midterm-year patterns.

On-chain metrics add nuance. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio suggests Bitcoin is overvalued relative to its transaction utility, a trend observed before past bear markets. The MVRV Z-Score at 2.15 indicates substantial unrealized gains, signaling potential profit-taking. Yet, Bitcoin's price remains above $90,000, a level that could act as a psychological floor if institutional buying resumes.

Ethereum: Staking, ETFs, and the MVRV Dilemma

Ethereum's MVRV ratio has entered a high-risk zone, currently between +3σ to +4σ, historically linked to profit-taking and corrections in the $4,600–$5,200 range. Despite this, Ethereum's price near $4,750-just 3% below its all-time high-suggests resilience. Institutional buying, including $3 billion in spot ETF inflows and $17 billion in corporate holdings, provides a buffer.

However, Ethereum faces selling pressure from staking withdrawals: 700,000 ETH ($3 billion) is queued for withdrawal. The NVT ratio, while not explicitly cited, is likely under stress given the broader market downturn. Yet, Ethereum's on-chain activity-particularly in staking and tokenized assets-suggests a healthier network than in previous bear markets. If the $4,200 support level holds, Ethereum could stabilize and re-enter a bull phase.

Dogecoin: Meme Magic or Market Mirage?

Dogecoin's trajectory is more erratic. Its MVRV Z-Score at 0.28-a capitulation level-contrasts with its price near $0.17, forming higher highs and lows on higher timeframes. On-chain metrics like the NVT ratio and MVRV (-1.57%) suggest undervaluation and an accumulation phase. However, whale activity and declining HODL Waves indicate conflicting signals, with short-term holders reducing stakes.

The launch of Dogecoin ETFs, though modest ($2.16 million in inflows), hints at institutional curiosity. If liquidity improves and key support levels ($0.143–$0.150) hold, Dogecoin could surge toward $0.40–$1 by mid-2026. Yet, its reliance on retail sentiment and celebrity endorsements makes it a high-risk, high-reward play.

Macro Factors: The Fed, Liquidity, and Geopolitics

The resolution of the bear-bull debate hinges on macroeconomic variables. The U.S. government shutdown, the next Federal Reserve Chair's appointment, and liquidity conditions will shape outcomes. A hawkish Fed could prolong the bear market, while rate cuts might trigger a bull reset.

The Bank of Japan's hawkish stance and rising global yields have already exacerbated liquidity concerns, triggering leveraged liquidations. Geopolitical tensions further erode investor confidence, but history shows Bitcoin and Ethereum recover within 2–3 years after major crashes.

Conclusion: A Floor in 2026?

The current drawdown for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin exhibits bearish signals-overvalued NVT ratios, MVRV divergence, and macroeconomic headwinds. However, historical patterns and institutional buying suggest a bull-market reset is plausible if key support levels hold. For Bitcoin, a floor near $90,000 could trigger a rebound; Ethereum's $4,200 and Dogecoin's $0.143 are critical.

While the path ahead is uncertain, the long-term case for crypto remains intact. As the Fed's policy and liquidity conditions evolve, investors should prepare for volatility but remain anchored to fundamentals. The floor in 2026 may arrive sooner than expected-if the market's resilience proves stronger than its fear.