Bitcoin ETFs May Surpass Satoshi’s Holdings by 2025

At a recent event, Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas made a significant prediction regarding the future of Bitcoin ETFs. He suggested that spot Bitcoin ETFs could collectively hold more Bitcoin than the amount attributed to Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, within a year. Satoshi is estimated to control around 1.1 million BTC, or approximately 5% of the total supply. Balchunas' prediction is based on the current flow of Bitcoin into these ETFs, indicating a potential shift in the ownership dynamics of the cryptocurrency.

Balchunas also discussed the rapid pace of ETF launches, with the U.S. market expected to see nearly 1,000 new ETFs introduced in 2025. He described this activity as a “New Launch Tsunami,” highlighting the growing interest in ETFs despite crypto ETFs still making up a small fraction of total ETF assets. He noted that crypto ETFs generate disproportionate attention, saying they represent “1 percent of the asset but take up 50 percent of my mind.”

Balchunas attributed the mainstream adoption of crypto ETFs to platforms like Fidelity and BlackRock, which have appealed to older investors. He described Fidelity’s approach as speaking “perfect boomer language,” and suggested that Larry Fink’s participation has helped ease concerns following events such as the FTX collapse. He also addressed investor behavior, arguing that traditional ETF holders, including older investors, have generally shown long-term holding behavior rather than being more likely to sell during market downturns.

While institutional crypto funds continue to grow and retail investors continue to hold, Balchunas anticipated the liquidity of Bitcoin to drop. He also discussed new crypto ETF filings, including one involving Truth Social’s filing for a Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF, and another related to a proposed “Trump meme coin” ETF. Speaking of the Truth Social filing, he said, “Obviously Trump isn’t gonna manage himself, but just the fact that his company is launching a Bitcoin ETF, I would say it’s surreal.” He noted that there’s no challenge in it getting approved because it’s just like the other ones that are already in the market.

The proposed Trump-themed meme coin ETF, however, raised more regulatory questions. Balchunas described it as a product with limited use and said its approval would be unusual. He said the ETF industry will continue to experiment with baskets and other combinations like how Truth Social’s ETF holds 75% of Bitcoin and 25% of Ethereum, including altcoins and meme tokens, in search of structures that connect with retail investors. He predicted that crypto is gonna get the full ETF treatment, and he bet one or two basket ETFs will do very well.