Bitcoin ETFs Surge 100% in Three Months, Institutional Buying Intensifies

Bitcoin has been exhibiting strong technical signals, forming both a cup-and-handle and a bullish flag pattern, which suggest a potential surge to new all-time highs. These patterns indicate a buildup of pressure that could fuel a significant breakout. The cryptocurrency has been trading tightly around $106,770, posting just a 0.1% dip on Friday. Despite multiple bullish catalysts, including over $1.6 billion in net ETF inflows since March and treasury accumulations surpassing 823,000 BTC, Bitcoin has failed to escape its $103,000–$108,000 range. The current structure reflects a market battling opposing forces: relentless long-term buying versus tactical, high-volume profit-taking from aged wallets.

The ETF space has seen 100,000 BTC in net inflows over the past three months, taking cumulative ETF holdings to over 630,000 BTC. These purchases reflect growing allocations from institutional asset managers, family offices, and wealth platforms. However, the price has moved marginally since March, showing that buying pressure from ETFs alone isn't enough in the current environment. Corporate buying remains aggressive, with strategy-led firms like MicroStrategy adding over 64,000 BTC in 2025 alone, pushing treasury holdings to 823,000 BTC, valued near $86 billion at current prices. This represents a consolidation of corporate conviction around Bitcoin’s role as a balance sheet reserve. However, this wave has been met by persistent long-term holder distribution, tempering the effect of these massive purchases.

HODL wave data reveals more than 240,000 BTC sold over the past 90 days from 1-to-5-year holding bands. This segment of aged supply, now monetizing gains, has absorbed a large chunk of demand. At the same time, miners continue to contribute ~450 BTC per day to circulating supply. The equilibrium between institutional buying and long-term selling explains the subdued volatility and repeated rejections near $108,000. Macroeconomic pressures are intensifying. While a Fed rate cut was once expected in July, growing concerns around the core PCE inflation print have delayed that narrative. Bitcoin, highly sensitive to real rates, remains capped until monetary direction is clear.

Bitcoin has been stuck at the significant resistance level of $107,000 for the past three days. It has jumped by nearly 10% from its lowest point this week. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $2.2 billion in inflows this week alone—the third consecutive week of net additions. These ETFs have had net inflows of $4.5 billion this month, down from $5.2 billion in May and $2.9 billion in April. They have had cumulative inflows of $48.87 billion, meaning that the figure could cross the $50 billion milestone in July. With supply on exchanges at its lowest since 2017, market momentum appears to favor the bulls, setting the stage for a possible breakout above the $111,900 peak.

BlackRock’s IBIT leads the charge. The ETF added over $52 billion in assets. It now holds $74.5 billion, making it one of the biggest ETFs in the U.S. Fidelity’s FBTC has $12 billion in inflows and now has $21.5 billion in assets. The soaring Bitcoin demand is happening at a time when the supply on exchanges has continued falling. Santiment data shows that there are 1.21 million coins on exchanges, its lowest level since December 2017. The daily chart indicates that Bitcoin has rebounded over the past few days, rising from a low of $98,253 to $107,400. It remains above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages, a sign that bulls are in control.

Bitcoin has formed a bullish flag pattern, one of the most positive signs in technical analysis. This pattern comprises a vertical line and a descending channel, which is part of the flag. It has also formed a cup-and-handle pattern, consisting of a rounded bottom and a descending channel. This channel is part of the bullish flag. Therefore, the most likely scenario is that it rebounds and possibly reaches its all-time high of $111,900. A move above that level will indicate further upside, potentially reaching the psychological point at $115,000.

Futures on the S&P 500 soared past 6,145, and Nasdaq Composite futures broke 20,180, as traders priced in dovish policy shifts. That correlation lifted Bitcoin early in the week, pushing BTC to a weekly high near $108,400, but repeated rejections pushed it back toward $107,000. Traders now await the PCE inflation data, which could either spark the next move higher or trigger a retreat below $105,000. From a technical lens, $104,000 remains the immediate support, bolstered by the 50-day EMA and previous demand zones. A decisive break below opens the door to $100,000, a psychologically critical level and round-number floor. On the upside, $112,000 stands as the key breakout resistance. Failure to break it would keep BTC confined to its current compression band, but any breach could rapidly drive a push toward $120,000.

Meanwhile, fresh optimism comes from Bitcoin’s Layer-2 narrative. Bitcoin Hyper, a new L2 network designed for scalable transaction throughput, has raised over $1.6 million in its presale. The protocol uses Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) compatibility and zero-knowledge proofs, aiming to enable smart contracts, meme coins, and dApps directly on Bitcoin. Its token, $HYPER, is currently priced at $0.01205, with tiered pricing set to increase. The project has been audited by Coinsult and Spywolf and includes a roadmap featuring native wallet integration, bridges, and staking mechanisms. Policy circles are also evolving. Indian legislators are now proposing Bitcoin as a reserve asset, citing its growing global credibility. If enacted, it would follow El Salvador’s pioneering steps and elevate BTC from institutional-grade asset to a geopolitical reserve currency. This movement is no longer isolated, as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are reportedly considering crypto as an asset class for mortgage qualifications—an adoption breakthrough not seen in past cycles.

While institutional flows remain consistent, retail participation is muted. On-chain activity shows subdued wallet creation and low network transaction velocity. However, historical patterns suggest that once retail re-engages—often triggered by a clean breakout above prior all-time highs—momentum can double BTC’s price within weeks. Currently, long-term holder selling has slowed to under 1,000 BTC per day, down from 3,000+ BTC/day in May, setting the stage for an inflection point. Altcoins remain tethered to BTC’s consolidation. Ethereum leads with a 6.7% weekly gain, trading at $2,432.20, while XRP fell 3.4% to $2.08, still up ~3% on the week. Solana and Cardano each slipped 1%, and meme tokens like Dogecoin dipped 0.4%. The meme-driven token $TRUMP bucked the trend with a 1% gain. The broader altcoin market awaits a Bitcoin breakout to ignite a true “altseason.”