Bitcoin ETFs See $1 Billion Inflows Amid Trade Deal and Political Pressures

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a significant surge, with over $1 billion in net inflows across two trading days. This influx is attributed to the easing of macroeconomic fears following a new trade agreement between the U.S. and an ASEAN member. The trade pact, which imposes tariffs on Vietnamese imports and eliminates tariffs on U.S. exports, has helped to rebalance trade dynamics and alleviate broader macroeconomic concerns. This development has fostered a more favorable environment for risk assets, including Bitcoin, and has notably improved investor sentiment.

Fidelity’s FBTC and BlackRock’s IBIT led the inflows, reflecting renewed institutional confidence amid shifting trade policies and political pressures on U.S. monetary policy. The inflows were led by Fidelity’s FBTC, which attracted $237.13 million, closely followed by BlackRock’s IBIT with $224.53 million. Other notable contributors included ARK 21Shares’ ARKB and Bitwise’s BITB, collectively adding significant capital to the Bitcoin ETF ecosystem. This influx marks the highest single-day ETF inflow since late May, signaling a potential bullish momentum for Bitcoin in July.

Adding to the bullish backdrop, President Donald Trump has intensified pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to implement aggressive interest rate cuts, even suggesting a premature replacement with candidates favoring looser monetary policy. This political intervention has contributed to a weakening U.S. dollar, as markets anticipate diminished central bank independence and a shift toward stimulative measures. The declining dollar has historically correlated with increased demand for alternative assets, including Bitcoin, which is reflected in the recent spike in ETF inflows. This dynamic underscores the interplay between monetary policy expectations and cryptocurrency market behavior.

The substantial inflows into Bitcoin ETFs may presage a strong performance for Bitcoin throughout July, challenging its typical third-quarter underperformance. Market analysts have begun setting ambitious short-term price targets ranging from $117,000 to $135,000, with some projecting Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by year-end. While Bitcoin was trading near $109,000 at the time of reporting, the influx of institutional capital suggests growing confidence in Bitcoin’s resilience and growth potential amid evolving macroeconomic and political landscapes.

The recent $1 billion-plus inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs highlight a significant shift in institutional sentiment, driven by easing trade tensions and political developments impacting monetary policy. This renewed confidence, coupled with a weakening dollar, positions Bitcoin for potential upward momentum in the near term. Investors should monitor these macroeconomic factors closely as they continue to shape the digital asset market environment.