Bitcoin ETF Inflows Plunge 90% to $228M in Four Weeks

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have experienced a significant decline, dropping over 90% from $3 billion to $228 million in just four weeks. This sharp decrease has raised concerns about the potential impact on Bitcoin's price, as historically, strong ETF inflows have been a key driver of Bitcoin rallies. However, recent data suggests that price movements can occur independently of ETF inflows, indicating a more complex dynamic at play.

To understand the potential impact of the recent drop in ETF inflows, it is useful to examine key periods of significant spot ETF activity and their correlation with Bitcoin price movements. In Q1 2024, spot ETFs recorded $11.39 billion in net inflows over seven weeks, driving a 57% price surge. Although Bitcoin prices peaked in week five, the $4.8 billion inflows in the final two weeks did not push its value higher. Similarly, in Q3 2024, $16.8 billion in inflows over nine weeks fueled a 66% rally, but when inflows slowed in the 10th week, Bitcoin’s price dropped 9%, reinforcing the link between ETF flows and price corrections.

In Q1 2025, $3.8 billion in inflows over two weeks coincided with a new all-time high of $110,000 on Jan. 20, but overall prices fell 4.8%. Most recently, in Q2 2025, $5.8 billion in inflows and a 22% price rally occurred, though Bitcoin had already gained 8% in the prior two weeks despite negative netflows. This data challenges the notion that spot ETF inflows consistently drive prices, as Q1 2024 and Q1 2025 show prices can stagnate or fall despite significant inflows. The Q2 2025 rally, partially independent of spot ETF activity, hints at other drivers like easing US tariffs, retail interest, or Bitcoin whale accumulation.

With inflows now at $228 million, the historical trend leans bearish, suggesting a potential correction. However, a counterargument emerges from recent whale activity, which paints a more bullish picture. Bitcoin exhibits short-term selling pressure as the Buy/Sell Pressure Delta turns negative, indicating selling pressure in the short term. Yet, long-term buying pressure remains strong, suggesting this dip is a correction, not a reversal. Data from CryptoQuant highlights that whales are taking relatively fewer profits in the current period than in previous price peaks. This could indicate that the upward trend may continue, as whales have taken significantly less profit during this recent surge compared to previous rallies.

In conclusion, while the recent drop in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows may suggest a bearish trend, the strong long-term buying pressure from whales indicates a potential continuation of the Bitcoin uptrend. The complex dynamics between ETF inflows and price movements highlight the need for a nuanced understanding of the factors driving Bitcoin's value. Investors should closely monitor these developments and conduct their own research when making investment decisions.