Bitcoin ETF Inflows: A $562M Bargain Hunt at $75K Support

The scale of the buying was decisive. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $561.9 million in net inflows on Monday, marking the largest single-day buying since January 14. This surge ended a four-day outflow streak and reversed two consecutive weeks of net outflows totaling $2.82 billion.

The timing was critical. Buyers stepped in after Bitcoin tested a nine-month low near $75,000, before rebounding to roughly $78,500 by Monday's close. This coordinated purchase, led by BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC, signals large allocators are using regulated ETFs to scale exposure as part of macro positioning shifts.

The Underwater Position: Cost Basis and Key Levels

The buyers are entering at a significant loss. The average cost basis for Bitcoin held in U.S. spot ETFs sits at approximately $84,099, meaning the collective ETF buyer base remains underwater by roughly $6,000 per coin. This creates a psychological and financial hurdle, as the recent inflow surge of $561.9 million is effectively buying into a position that has already declined 40% from its October high.

Immediate technical resistance looms at $84,000, the level of the average cost basis. A stronger barrier appears at $87,500, the key level defined by the Supertrend indicator. For context, the ETFs collectively hold about 1.3 million BTC, representing roughly 6% of the total Bitcoin supply.

Catalysts and Risks: Flow Continuation vs. Breakdown

The primary catalyst for a near-term floor is the continued tightening of liquid supply. If spot buying sustains, it can support a firmer backdrop by absorbing available BTC. The key risk is a breakdown below the $75,000 support level, which could reignite outflows and pressure the ETFs' average cost basis, now roughly $6,000 underwater.

Monitoring daily ETF flows is critical to gauge this dynamic. The Fear & Greed index, sitting at 17/100, signals extreme negative sentiment, a condition that often precedes a bounce but also highlights the market's structural vulnerability.