Is Bitcoin Entering a Structural Bear Market?

Bitcoin's market structure in 2025 is a tapestry of contradictions. On one hand, on-chain metrics like MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) and SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) hint at cyclical fragility. On the other, structural forces-namely institutional adoption and evolving ETF dynamics-suggest a maturing market less prone to traditional bear market mechanics. To assess whether Bitcoin is entering a structural bear market, we must dissect its on-chain fundamentals through the lens of historical patterns and current market dynamics.

Current On-Chain Metrics: A Mixed Signal

As of November 2025, Bitcoin's MVRV ratio stands at 2.3, indicating that the market value is significantly above the realized value (the average price at which coins were last moved) according to analysis. This suggests long-term holders remain in profit, a bullish sign. However, the SOPR ratio dipped below 1.0 during November, signaling short-term holders were selling at a loss according to data. This divergence-long-term holders bullish, short-term holders bearish-is a classic pre-bear market pattern.

The NVT (Network Value to Transactions) ratio has reached a "golden cross" at 1.51, suggesting Bitcoin's valuation is supported by transactional value rather than speculative activity according to reports. Meanwhile, the realized capitalization has surpassed $900 billion, reflecting a robust cost basis for holders and reinforcing conviction in Bitcoin's value according to data. These metrics collectively imply a market that is structurally healthy but showing early signs of cyclical stress.

Historical Comparison: Lessons from 2018 and 2020

To contextualize 2025's metrics, we turn to historical bear markets. During the 2018 bear market, the MVRV ratio fell below 1, indicating undervaluation and marking a buying opportunity according to analysis. Similarly, the SOPR ratio dropped below 1, as panic selling dominated according to research. The NVT ratio also signaled overvaluation as the 2017 bull run collapsed according to data.

In contrast, the 2020-2021 bear market saw a more measured decline in MVRV and SOPR, with institutional buying absorbing short-term supply. The 2025 market, however, appears to be following a hybrid pattern: MVRV remains elevated (2.3 vs. 1.0 in 2018), while SOPR's dip below 1 mirrors 2018's capitulation phase according to data. This suggests a cyclical bear market is possible but not yet structural.

Structural Changes: ETFs and DATs as Stabilizers

A critical difference in 2025 is the structural absorption of short-term supply by institutional players. Spot Bitcoin ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) have absorbed approximately 57% of the increase in short-term holder supply since early 2024, now accounting for nearly a quarter of all BTC active within the past year according to analysis. This institutional demand has elongated Bitcoin's cycle rhythms, reducing the likelihood of a sharp, traditional bear market.

Moreover, the Active Realized Price of $89,400 and True Market Mean Price of $82,400 in November 2025 represent key support levels according to market analysis. Historically, these levels have acted as strong psychological and technical barriers during bear markets. If institutional demand persists, they could serve as floors rather than catalysts for further decline.

Conclusion: Cyclical, Not Structural

While Bitcoin's on-chain metrics in November 2025 exhibit classic bear market signals-SOPR below 1, MVRV cooling from previous peaks-the broader picture tells a different story. The realized cap's record high, NVT's golden cross, and institutional absorption of short-term supply suggest a market that is structurally resilient.

This is not to dismiss the possibility of a cyclical bear market, which remains a risk as short-term holders rotate out. However, the structural underpinnings-ETFs, DATs, and a maturing investor base-act as a buffer against the kind of systemic collapse seen in 2018. For now, Bitcoin's bear market, if it materializes, will likely be shallow and short-lived, driven by cyclical profit-taking rather than fundamental breakdown.