Is Bitcoin Entering a Bear Market? A Technical Deep Dive into 5 Critical Sell Signals

The cryptocurrency market has long been a theater of volatility, but Bitcoin's recent price action in November 2025 raises urgent questions about its trajectory. With the asset trading below key resistance levels and exhibiting multiple bearish technical indicators, the case for a potential bear market is gaining weight. This analysis identifies five critical sell signals-ranging from Fibonacci retracements to on-chain metrics-that underscore the risks for investors and highlight the importance of disciplined risk management.

1. Broken Fibonacci Levels and EMA Divergence Signal Structural Weakness

Bitcoin's descent below the $100,000 level in late 2025 marked a pivotal breakdown. The price has since fallen below the 0.50 Fibonacci correction level at $99,600 and the 0.618 level at $93,600–$93,700, both critical psychological thresholds for bulls according to analysis. Concurrently, the 8-day and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) remain in a downward slope, with the shorter-term EMA (8-day) persistently below the longer-term EMA (21-day). This "death cross" pattern reinforces bearish momentum and suggests a lack of near-term buying interest to reverse the trend as technical indicators show.

2. MACD Bearish Crossover: A Historical Harbinger of 60%+ Downtrends

Bitcoin's recent monthly MACD bearish crossover represents a significant shift in market sentiment. On November 24, 2025, Bitcoin experienced a monthly MACD bearish crossover, a rare event with historically significant implications. According to analyst @ali_charts, the previous three monthly MACD bearish crossovers in Bitcoin's history were followed by price declines exceeding 60%. If this pattern holds, the asset could test the $40,000 level-a 60% drop from its November 2025 price-during this cycle according to on-chain data. This signal, combined with the broader technical context, amplifies concerns about a deepening bear market.

3. MVRV Ratio at 1.8: A Cautionary On-Chain Signal

On-chain metrics provide further insight into Bitcoin's valuation. The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, a measure of overvaluation or undervaluation, has fallen to 1.8 as of November 2025 according to market analysis. While this level historically signals undervaluation and potential accumulation phases, it also reflects investor hesitation and a fragile market structure. A MVRV ratio below 2.0 often precedes extended bear markets, as it indicates that a significant portion of the network is trading at a loss, increasing the likelihood of capitulation-driven selling.

4. Elevated Realized Losses and Institutional Selling Pressure

Bitcoin's price action is being driven by institutional selling, as evidenced by the $722 million in realized losses recorded in early 2025 according to exchange data. These losses align with historical patterns observed during market capitulation, where liquidity shifts and profit-taking by long-term holders accelerate price declines. The $90,000–$95,000 support zone, already under pressure, could see further erosion if selling persists, potentially pushing the price toward the $85,000–$86,000 range according to technical analysis.

5. Exchange Flows and SOPR: On-Chain Metrics Confirm Bearish Sentiment

Exchange inflows and the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) metric reinforce the bearish narrative. High inflows into centralized exchanges suggest increased short-term selling pressure, as traders prepare to offload Bitcoin according to on-chain indicators. Meanwhile, a SOPR ratio below 1.0-indicating coins are being sold at a loss-signals capitulation and a lack of conviction among retail and institutional participants as data shows. These metrics, combined with the MVRV ratio, paint a picture of a market struggling to find buyers at current levels.

Risk Management: Navigating the Bearish Scenario

For investors, the key takeaway is to prioritize risk management. Short-term traders should monitor the $93,600–$93,700 support zone closely, as a break below this level could trigger a cascade toward $85,000–$86,000 according to technical analysis. Long-term holders, meanwhile, should consider dollar-cost averaging into dips but remain cautious about overexposure. A reversal to bullish territory would require a strong close above $105,000–$106,000, the neckline of the Shoulder Over Shoulder pattern according to market analysis. Until such a breakout occurs, the technical case for a bear market remains compelling.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's technical landscape in November 2025 is dominated by bearish signals: broken Fibonacci levels, MACD crossovers, on-chain metrics like MVRV and SOPR, and institutional selling pressure. While history shows that markets can rebound from such depths, the current environment demands a disciplined approach to risk. Investors should remain vigilant, use stop-loss strategies, and avoid overleveraging. As the market tests critical support levels, the coming weeks will be pivotal in determining whether this correction evolves into a full-blown bear market.