Bitcoin Ends Week at $108,000 Amid Tariff Pause and Fed Minutes Await

Bitcoin and most altcoins remained in a tight range last week, despite rising exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and top US indices, such as the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, reaching a record high. Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $110,000 for the first time in a month and then pared back those gains, ending the week at $108,000. The market capitalization of all coins ended the week at $3.30 trillion. The most important catalyst for the stock and crypto markets will be the end of President Donald Trump’s 90-day pause on tariffs, slated for July 9. The US has reached preliminary trade agreements with a few countries, including Vietnam, China, and the U.K. Other top trading partners — Canada, the European Union, Japan, and South Korea — may revert to the high tariffs he announced in April. A restart of his “retaliatory tariffs” will likely be bearish for Bitcoin, altcoins, and the stock market. For example, Bitcoin price plunged to $74,000 after the Liberation Day speech, and then bounced back after he announced the 90-day pause.

Bitcoin and altcoins are also expected to react to the Federal Open Market Committee minutes, scheduled for release on Wednesday. These minutes, for the May 6-7, 2025 meeting, will provide more information about the last meeting, in which officials left interest rates unchanged between 4.25% and 4.50%. The Fed minutes will provide hints on when officials expect to cut interest rates, which would be bullish for Bitcoin and altcoins. Still, the odds of a rate cut in July have decreased recently due to the strong nonfarm payrolls data. The data showed that the economy added over 147,000 jobs in June, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Most traders anticipate the bank to cut rates in September if inflation data continues falling.

The other key catalyst for Bitcoin and the crypto market will be the potential BTC breakout. Bitcoin has remained below the all-time high of $111,900 in the past few weeks. Bitcoin has also formed a bullish flag pattern, shown in black, and a cup-and-handle pattern. These two patterns often result in greater gains over time. Therefore, a breakout this week could push it to its all-time high, leading to further gains among altcoins. The altcoin market is showing strong signs of recovery, with Bitcoin dominance dropping from 65% to 62%. This historical indicator often precedes explosive rallies in alternative cryptocurrencies, as seen in 2019, 2020, and 2021. The TOTAL3 chart, which excludes Bitcoin and Ethereum, reveals a powerful accumulation pattern, with the total market cap for altcoins standing at $828.28 billion. This pattern mirrors the August–November 2024 accumulation zone, which preceded a strong altcoin breakout. Market analysts anticipate a similar move in the coming weeks, driven by rising investor participation and renewed interest in alternative cryptocurrencies.

Technical data further supports the bullish outlook. An upward trendline from 2023 remains intact, connecting key support levels and holding despite recent pullbacks. This trendline is a crucial indicator of the market's resilience and potential for further growth. Institutional interest in altcoins is growing again, with market structure patterns indicating that whales and funds are rotating into altcoins. Retail traders are drawn by lower entry prices and recent price surges in meme coins and low caps. Bitcoin's struggle to break the $75,000 resistance level has created space for capital to rotate into more speculative assets, further fueling the altcoin rally. Technical indicators show mixed signals, with momentum appearing neutral yet support remaining firm across major timeframes. Bitcoin’s sluggish performance compared to altcoins strengthens the altseason narrative. If 75% of the top 100 coins outperform Bitcoin over 90 days, it officially confirms an altseason. Traders are now monitoring the TOTAL3 and Bitcoin dominance charts for final confirmation, as these metrics often precede large-scale altcoin rallies. Current levels represent a potential launchpad for a broad altcoin rally.

The bullish rebound signaled by the TOTAL3 index is a clear indication of the growing momentum in the altcoin market. As investors continue to diversify their portfolios and explore new opportunities, the altcoin market is poised for further growth and development. The increasing interest and investment in altcoins reflect the maturing nature of the cryptocurrency market and the recognition of the unique value propositions offered by these digital assets. However, investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions, as the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and subject to rapid changes.