Bitcoin Ends June at Record $107,100, Eyes 9% July Rally

Bitcoin concluded June with a record monthly high of $107,100, demonstrating strong momentum despite the formation of a spinning top candlestick pattern, which typically indicates market indecision. This pattern, characterized by a small body with long upper and lower wicks, suggests that neither buyers nor sellers have asserted dominance, often preceding a price reversal or consolidation phase. However, Bitcoin's sustained upward trajectory throughout 2025 underscores robust underlying demand and resilience.

Historical trends and expert analysis suggest a potential 9% rally for Bitcoin in July. According to 10X Research, Bitcoin’s consecutive six-figure monthly closes in 2025 highlight a robust recovery from earlier dips. Key resistance levels are closely monitored by analysts, with the most recent monthly close in June at $107,100 marking a significant milestone. This follows a recovery from a significant dip to $75,000 in April, demonstrating a robust rebound. The last comparable spinning top candle appeared in July 2024, which was succeeded by a red hammer candle and an 8.6% decline in August. Market participants should weigh these historical signals carefully as they navigate current price dynamics.

Markus Thielen, head of research at 10X Research, highlights a strong seasonal pattern favoring Bitcoin gains in July. Analysis of the past decade reveals that Bitcoin has delivered positive returns in seven out of ten Julys, averaging a 9% increase. Even in years with negative performance, declines remained modest and within single-digit percentages. This trend aligns with the typical strength observed in US equities during July, which often correlates with Bitcoin’s price movements. Thielen emphasizes that the current market environment, including sustained equity momentum and Bitcoin’s recent price action, creates a favorable backdrop for further upside. Investors are encouraged to consider these seasonal factors alongside technical indicators to inform their strategies. The convergence of historical data and present market conditions suggests that Bitcoin could continue its upward trajectory through July.

Technical analyst “Rekt Capital” notes that Bitcoin’s weekly candle closed just below a critical resistance level of $108,890, settling at $108,380. This close under resistance hints at the formation of a possible early-stage lower high, which could signal short-term price pressure. To invalidate this bearish setup, Bitcoin must reclaim this resistance level as support on the daily chart, a key technical milestone for sustaining bullish momentum. Despite a 2% dip over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has remained tightly rangebound near the $107,000 mark for the past week. This consolidation phase reflects a balance between buying and selling pressures, often preceding a decisive breakout. Traders and investors should monitor volume and momentum indicators closely to anticipate potential shifts in trend direction.

Bitcoin’s record monthly close in June at $107,100, coupled with a spinning top candlestick pattern, presents a nuanced market outlook marked by both strength and caution. Historical seasonal trends and expert analysis from 10X Research support a high probability of a 9% rally in July, while technical resistance near $108,890 remains a critical hurdle. Market participants should remain vigilant, leveraging both fundamental and technical insights to navigate the evolving landscape. Maintaining awareness of key resistance levels and seasonal patterns will be essential for capitalizing on potential opportunities in the coming weeks.