Bitcoin's Emerging Momentum and Metrics Signal a Bull Market Rebound

Bitcoin's price action and on-chain dynamics in Q3 2025 have sparked renewed optimism among investors, with technical and fundamental indicators converging toward a potential bull market rebound. While short-term volatility persists, the broader narrative suggests that Bitcoin is positioning itself for a sustained upward trend, driven by post-halving supply constraints, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic tailwinds.

Technical Analysis: Divergence and Reversal Signals

Bitcoin's technical indicators present a nuanced picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 43.71, signaling weakening momentum but not yet entering oversold territory, according to a Medium analysis. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains bearish at 109.86, reflecting near-term selling pressure, as noted in the same Medium analysis. However, a critical divergence emerges when examining moving averages: short- and medium-term averages (e.g., EMA 10, EMA 20) are in sell territory, while long-term indicators like EMA 100 and SMA 200 remain bullish, a pattern the Medium analysis also highlights. This divergence suggests a potential short-term correction within a broader bullish framework.

Key support and resistance levels are pivotal for near-term price direction. A breakdown below the pivot point at $113,379.73 could trigger a test of support at $102,258.16 or deeper at $96,256.55. Conversely, a sustained move above $117,000-a level aligned with the upper boundary of a rising trend channel-would validate a bullish reversal, according to an InvestTech report. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to retest and hold critical levels during bull cycles, and the current structure mirrors patterns observed in early 2024, as the Medium analysis observes. Notably, backtesting of resistance breaks from 2022 to 2025 reveals that such events typically generate a 3% excess return within seven trading days, with a 66% win rate by day 30, based on a backtest report.

On-Chain Metrics: Accumulation and Structural Strength

On-chain data reinforces the case for a bull market rebound. The MVRV Z-Score, a measure of realized capital gains/losses, has rebounded to 1.8, indicating that the majority of Bitcoin holders are in profit territory-a condition often preceding sustained price increases, according to a Bitcoin News Today analysis. Additionally, the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio has crossed the "golden cross" threshold of 1.51, suggesting that Bitcoin's valuation is increasingly supported by real-world usage rather than speculative trading, a point also discussed in the Medium analysis.

Exchange outflows further underscore accumulation by long-term holders. For instance, Binance's reserves have declined by 51,000 BTC since April 2025, tightening liquidity and amplifying volatility risks in the short term, as noted in the Medium analysis. Meanwhile, 74% of circulating Bitcoin is now illiquid, with 75% of coins dormant for over six months, a dynamic the Medium analysis highlights. This reduced float means even modest demand increases could drive significant price action, a dynamic historically observed during post-halving cycles, as the Bitcoin News Today analysis explains.

Whale activity, tracked via tools like Arkham Intelligence and Nansen, also points to strategic accumulation. Large wallet movements have become more frequent, with institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals locking in gains and rebalancing portfolios-patterns described in an OnChain Standard guide. Such behavior often precedes market tops, as seen in 2021 and 2024, but the current context-marked by regulatory clarity and ETF inflows-suggests a more orderly accumulation phase, according to the Bitcoin News Today analysis.

Macro and Regulatory Tailwinds

Bitcoin's correlation with U.S. equities remains strong, with both asset classes benefiting from anticipated rate cuts and a dovish Federal Reserve stance, according to the InvestTech report. Institutional inflows via spot ETFs have added $2.1 billion in net capital since January 2025, further solidifying demand, the Bitcoin News Today analysis notes. Regulatory developments, including the EU's MiCA implementation and the U.S. SEC's delayed ETF approvals, have also reduced uncertainty, attracting risk-on capital into crypto, as the Bitcoin News Today piece explains.

However, risks persist. A breakdown below $65,000 would invalidate the current bullish structure, while equity market weakness or regulatory setbacks could delay the bull phase, a caution detailed in the Bitcoin News Today analysis. Investors must remain vigilant, but the confluence of technical and on-chain signals suggests that Bitcoin is nearing a critical inflection point.

Conclusion: Positioning for the Bull Phase

Bitcoin's technical and on-chain metrics paint a cautiously bullish picture for Q4 2025 and beyond. The interplay of post-halving supply dynamics, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic tailwinds creates a compelling case for a move toward $160,000–$200,000 by year-end, as the Medium analysis projects. While short-term volatility is inevitable, the structural strength of the network and historical precedents indicate that the current consolidation phase is a prelude to a larger bull market.

Investors should monitor key levels ($113,379.73 pivot, $117,000 resistance) and on-chain metrics like NVT and MVRV Z-Score for confirmation of a trend reversal. For those with a long-term horizon, the current environment offers a unique opportunity to position ahead of what could be one of the most significant bull runs in Bitcoin's history.