Bitcoin's Elliott Wave 4th Correction: A Catalyst for a Larger Bull Run

The cryptocurrency market has long been a theater of volatility, but Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 suggests a pivotal inflection point. Recent Elliott Wave analysis and shifting market sentiment indicate that the 4th correction phase-often a precursor to a powerful bullish resurgence-is nearing completion. This correction, while painful for short-term holders, may serve as the catalyst for a new leg higher in Bitcoin's price trajectory.

Technical Analysis: The Elliott Wave Framework

Elliott Wave theory posits that markets move in repetitive cycles of five-wave impulsive structures and three-wave corrective patterns. Bitcoin's current price action aligns with this model, with analysts identifying a completed three-wave recovery followed by a corrective phase labeled as Wave (C).

Historically, Bitcoin's 4th-wave corrections have adhered to Fibonacci retracement levels. For instance, the 2024 correction saw prices retrace to the 23.6%–38.2% range of the preceding impulse wave, a pattern consistent with the 2011–2013 and 2016–2017 cycles. As of November 2025, Bitcoin has tested the $86,581–$101,149 retracement zone, a critical area where corrections typically consolidate before resuming the primary trend.

A key technical signal is the irregular expanded flat pattern observed in late 2024, where Wave 4 extended beyond traditional boundaries but remained within defined Fibonacci parameters. This complexity reflects Bitcoin's maturation as an asset class, with corrections becoming more nuanced as institutional participation grows. Analysts now anticipate a resumption of the bullish trend once the correction resolves, with a projected target of $164,000.

Sentiment Shifts: Catalysts for a Bull Run

Market sentiment has begun to pivot in Bitcoin's favor, driven by macroeconomic developments. Amazon's $50 billion AI infrastructure investment in November 2025 acted as a shock absorber for risk assets, including Bitcoin. The news spurred a rebound from $80,000 to $87,300 within days, despite a weekly decline of over 7%. This resilience underscores Bitcoin's growing correlation with AI-driven technological optimism.

Moreover, Bitcoin mining firms with AI and HPC exposure-such as Cipher Mining and Hut 8-saw stock price surges, signaling renewed institutional interest in the sector. Such developments suggest that Bitcoin's underlying infrastructure is gaining traction in mainstream finance, a trend often preceding major bull cycles.

Historical Precedents and Future Implications

Bitcoin's history provides compelling parallels. The 2011–2013 and 2016–2017 cycles demonstrated that extended fifth waves are frequently followed by corrections of similar magnitude, after which prices often resume higher. For example, the 2013 correction erased gains from Wave 5 but ultimately paved the way for a multi-year bull run.

The 2021–2023 bear market, interpreted as a WXYXZ corrective pattern, further illustrates how Bitcoin's corrections are evolving into more complex structures. This complexity, however, does not negate the long-term bullish case-it merely requires investors to adapt to a more mature market dynamic.

Conclusion: Positioning for the Next Leg Higher

Bitcoin's 4th correction, while a near-term headwind, is a necessary step in the Elliott Wave cycle. Technically, the asset is nearing key retracement levels that could trigger a resumption of the bullish trend. Sentimentally, macroeconomic catalysts like Amazon's AI investment are rekindling optimism. For investors, this confluence of technical and fundamental factors suggests that the correction is nearing its end-and that the next bull phase may already be in the making.