Bitcoin's Easing Sell Pressure and Institutional Behavior Signal a Potential Cycle Bottom

The Bitcoin market in November 2025 is at a critical inflection point, marked by a confluence of on-chain signals and institutional dynamics that suggest waning structural selling and a potential cycle bottom. As the cryptocurrency navigates a volatile macroeconomic landscape, data from long-term holder behavior, exchange inflow trends, and whale activity paints a nuanced picture of market sentiment. These indicators, when analyzed in context, highlight a strategic entry window for investors willing to navigate near-term turbulence.

On-Chain Metrics: Long-Term Holder Supply and Exchange Inflows

Bitcoin's long-term holder supply has contracted significantly, with approximately 52% of the circulating supply remaining unmoved for over a year-a decline from 61% at the start of 2024. This reduction reflects gradual selling by long-term holders, though the narrative is not purely bearish. A substantial portion of these sales has been absorbed by emerging demand channels, including spot Bitcoin ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), which have acted as stabilizing forces.

Exchange inflow trends further reinforce this dynamic. Bitcoin held in exchange reserves has dropped from 2.4 million BTC to a range of 1.82–1.83 million BTC between November 21 and 27, 2025. This decline signals a cautious approach by short-term holders and a shift toward more stable holding channels, such as cold storage or institutional custody. Reduced exchange reserves typically correlate with lower immediate selling pressure, a key characteristic of cyclical bottoms.

Institutional and Whale Behavior: Redistribution and Conviction

Institutional activity in November 2025 reveals a complex interplay of bearish and bullish forces. While Bitcoin ETP balances declined by 49.3K BTC between October 10 and November 14, this outflow was driven primarily by mid-cycle traders rather than long-term whales. Notably, the oldest Bitcoin holders-those with coins unmoved for over five years-have continued to retain or increase their holdings, with a net addition of 278K BTC over two years. This sustained conviction among long-term investors underscores a fundamental belief in Bitcoin's long-term value proposition.

Whale behavior also provides critical insights. Mid-term holders (coins moved 3–5 years ago) have seen a 32% decline in supply as they sell to newer participants. Conversely, smaller whales (100–1,000 BTC) have increased their allocations by 9% and 23% over the past 12 months, respectively. This redistribution suggests a shift in market dynamics, with capital flowing from mid-term to more stable, long-term accumulation. On-chain data further highlights whale accumulation in the 100–1,000 BTC range, with wallet shares rising by 0.38% week-on-week.

Regulatory developments, such as the OCC's guidance allowing national banks to hold crypto for operational purposes, have also created a more favorable environment for institutional participation. Despite $5 billion in combined outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin and ether ETFs in November, year-to-date net inflows remain robust at ~$22 billion, underscoring enduring institutional interest.

Price Analysis and Support Levels: Stabilization and Strategic Entry

Bitcoin's price action in November 2025 has been volatile, with the asset dipping below key support levels, including the critical $90,000 mark. However, historical patterns suggest that such corrections often precede corrective rallies. On-chain metrics like Coin Days Destroyed have spiked, indicating increased activity from long-term holders-potentially signaling profit-taking or liquidity needs.

Technical analysis identifies several critical support levels that could define Bitcoin's near-term trajectory. The Active Realized Price at $89,400 and the True Market Mean Price at $82,400 are historically significant, with a breakdown below $83,680 (the 100-week SMA and macro bullish trendline) potentially signaling deeper losses. Conversely, stabilization near $82,045-identified via Glassnode's URPL-could act as a pivotal floor for near-term price direction.

Bitcoin's price could fall to $77,000 if it declines 15% from current levels, while Fibonacci projections suggest a possible drop to $70,100–$72,000. The broader bearish sentiment is reinforced by a bearish MACD crossover on the monthly timeframe, though discounted mNAVs in digital asset treasuries and elevated put option skews suggest downside risk has been partially hedged.

Strategic Implications and Conclusion

The interplay of on-chain metrics, institutional behavior, and technical indicators points to a market at a cyclical inflection point. Easing sell pressure, as evidenced by declining exchange inflows and whale accumulation, combined with sustained conviction among long-term holders, suggests a potential bottoming process. While Bitcoin's price remains below key support levels, stabilization near these thresholds-particularly $82,045 or $83,680-could mark a strategic entry window for investors.

For those with a long-term horizon, the current environment offers an opportunity to capitalize on discounted valuations, provided macroeconomic catalysts like Fed rate cuts materialize. As the market digests these dynamics, the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin's cycle bottom has been established-or if further consolidation is required.