Bitcoin Drops Below $93,000 as US GDP Contracts 0.3%

Bitcoin's price experienced a significant drop, falling below $93,000 on April 30, following the release of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. The data revealed a -0.3% contraction in Q1, which was far below the expected +0.3% growth. This contraction sparked fears of a potential recession, with the GDP Price Index soaring to 3.7%, the highest since August 2023. The odds of a recession in 2025 hit 67%, and consumer confidence reached its lowest point since May 2020.

In March 2025, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate fell to 2.3%, slightly above the expected 2.2%. Core PCE dropped to 2.6%, in line with expectations. However, February’s Core PCE was revised from 2.8% to 3.0%, indicating mixed inflation trends. These economic indicators suggest a complex environment for Bitcoin, with both short-term risks and long-term potential.

Historically, Bitcoin has shown resilience during periods of monetary expansion, as seen during the 2020 COVID-19 market crash when it rallied over 300% by year-end. However, the current stagflation environment, characterized by the -0.3% GDP contraction and 3.7% GDP Price Index, poses short-term risks. High inflation often deters retail crypto investment, as seen in 2022 when Bitcoin fell 60% amid Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The March 2025 PCE inflation data suggests cooling pressures that could ease Fed rate hike fears and support Bitcoin. However, February’s upward revisions signal persistent inflation, keeping the Fed’s next moves uncertain.

Bitcoin’s spot volume delta dipped over $300 million over the past three days, increasing potential sell-off pressure for BTC around the $95,000 level. Data indicates the 7-day moving average of BTC spot volume delta recorded negative flows over consecutive days. This sharp decline signals aggressive selling and weakening spot demand, a signal of profit-taking or a potential short-term trend reversal. Despite the sell-off, accumulation trends among Bitcoin holders paint a more nuanced picture. Whales holding over 10,000 BTC remain in an accumulation mode, with a trend score near 0.95. However, smaller holders show signs of distribution, with the 10–100 BTC group trending toward 0.6, while those with 1–10 BTC (0.3) and less than 1 BTC (0.2) are net sellers. This top-down accumulation suggests the current selling pressure stems from short-term holders potentially taking profit around the $95,000 level. Termed as a “profit-taking pressure test” for BTC, the current market is at a key decision point, where profit-taking is a pivotal metric to monitor.

Last week, the total realized profit on an hourly chart surged to $139.9M/hour, roughly 17% above its $120M/hour baseline. With the current spot delta outflows, the realized profit may hit new highs this week. This indicates that while there is selling pressure, there is also significant profit-taking, which could stabilize the market in the long term. The current environment presents a complex scenario for Bitcoin, with short-term risks and long-term potential. Investors should conduct their own research and consider the broader economic context when making investment decisions.