Bitcoin Drops 7.5% From All-Time High As Long-Term Holders Realize Profits

Bitcoin's recent price surge to an all-time high of $111.8k has been followed by a retreat to $103.2k, as long-term holders began realizing profits. This trend signals a potential increase in short-term downside risk due to the absence of significant bullish catalysts. The latest rally was largely spot-driven, with key accumulation zones now serving as support between $81k and $104k. However, older cohorts are now offloading, posing resistance to further upside.

On-chain data shows that many previous accumulation zones have flipped into distribution zones, particularly those formed between $25k–31k and $60k–73k. These seasoned holders are shaping the current market structure, applying selling pressure that could cap Bitcoin’s short-term gains. Cost basis models highlight immediate support near $103.7k and $95.6k, with resistance sitting at $114.8k. The average entry price for short-term holders is now around $97.1k, with wider bands defining the market’s current sentiment range. A break of these levels could signal whether momentum is fading or reigniting.

Profit realization has intensified, with daily profits spiking to $1.47B, marking the fifth such event this cycle. Importantly, this selling is being led by long-term holders—those holding for over a year—indicating mature capital rotation rather than speculative churn. In short, Bitcoin’s latest surge has entered a critical phase. Elevated profit-taking by veteran investors, coupled with cooling momentum, suggests that the market may be transitioning into a consolidation or top-formation phase. Whether support zones hold in the coming weeks will determine if the rally resumes or deeper corrections unfold.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $103,450. It briefly touched an intraday high of $103,467 but could not break higher. From its recent all-time high of $111,814, the coin is now down approximately 7.5%. Over the past week, BTC has declined by around 3%, while still posting a monthly gain of roughly 8%. Bitcoin could climb to $115,000 or higher by early July, driven by institutional demand, ETF inflows, and broader macro catalysts. In their latest market outlook, analysts highlighted that Friday’s U.S. jobs report could further influence expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which would benefit risk assets like BTC. While the labor data alone won’t dictate Bitcoin’s next move, weaker-than-expected figures could reinforce disinflation trends and support a dovish Fed stance. In this scenario, BTC could test the $120K–$125K range in June. On the downside, the $95K–$97K zone is seen as key for accumulation.

Currently trading near $105,000, Bitcoin faces short-term risks if the jobs report surprises to the upside, which could push BTC back toward $102K or lower. However, analysts emphasize that Bitcoin’s trajectory remains shaped by a complex mix of institutional flows, macro factors, and evolving market sentiment.