Bitcoin Drops 4% as Bears Defend $105,200 Resistance

Bitcoin's price is currently hovering around $101,200 following a tumultuous weekend session where buyers successfully defended a crucial liquidity zone just above $100,000. As the June 27 options expiry approaches, the market is experiencing heightened volatility and tightening conditions, with bulls and bears locked in a battle near key technical levels.

Despite the broader market structure remaining rangebound on higher timeframes, lower timeframes reveal weakening bullish momentum and increasing volatility. The recent rejection from the $105,200 zone, which aligns with both trendline resistance and a prior order block, has led to price consolidation just above $101,000. Sellers remain active below $103,000, and the current price action coincides with heavy sell-side liquidity around $105,000–$106,000. If the price fails to reclaim this zone ahead of the options expiry, further downside pressure toward the $98,000–$100,000 support base cannot be ruled out.

The 4-hour chart shows a clear downtrend from the mid-June peak, with Bitcoin consistently printing lower highs and trapped beneath a declining trendline. A series of order blocks between $104,200 and $106,400 have acted as strong overhead resistance, and the most recent attempt to break through this zone failed with a sharp wick rejection back toward $101,000. The Bollinger Bands on this timeframe show narrowing volatility followed by expansion, suggesting strong directional moves are imminent. The price rejection at the upper band on June 21 indicates that sellers are actively defending rallies.

Momentum indicators on the 2-hour and 30-minute charts continue to favor the bears. The RSI has broken below 40 and remains in a weak zone, while the MACD histogram on both timeframes has flipped red, signaling a loss in bullish strength. A hidden bearish divergence on the RSI can be observed when comparing recent swing highs near $104,000 to prior peaks. The 4-hour Supertrend remains in bearish mode, with resistance now anchored at $105,207. The DMI indicator on the 4-hour chart highlights dominant -DI strength at 33.18 versus +DI at 15.21, with the ADX climbing toward 25, suggesting an increase in directional bearish momentum.

On-chain exchange data shows that on June 21, over $195.72 million in Bitcoin net outflows were recorded, reflecting risk-off sentiment as traders likely reposition ahead of volatility expected around the June 27 options expiry. From a derivative perspective, open interest remains heavily skewed toward puts at the $100,000 strike, indicating strong market anticipation of further downside unless BTC can quickly reclaim the $105,000 zone. This adds pressure to bulls to stage a meaningful bounce early in the week.

The current downtrend in Bitcoin's price is attributed to several factors. Technical resistance between $104,200 and $106,000 remains firm, key momentum indicators like RSI and MACD have turned bearish across multiple timeframes, and the June 27 options expiry introduces near-term volatility and encourages risk-averse positioning. Additionally, bearish dominance on the DMI indicator and negative spot exchange flows add weight to a potential short-term pullback. Until BTC can flip $105,200 into support, any relief bounce is likely to be met with renewed selling pressure.

For the short-term outlook, BTC needs to decisively break above $105,200 and close above the trendline resistance to invalidate the bearish setup. Failure to do so keeps the downside targets at $100,000 and $98,400 in play. A breakdown below $98,000 may open the door to a retest of the $95,700–$96,300 demand zone. Upside targets remain at $106,400 and $108,000 if a breakout occurs.