Bitcoin Drops 2.86% to $102,000 Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Bitcoin's price experienced a notable decline, falling from $105,000 to $102,000 after briefly reaching the $100,000 mark. This drop was triggered by heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.–Israel airstrikes on Iran, which caused a wave of volatility across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Despite a mild rebound to $102,000, the short-term outlook for Bitcoin remains uncertain, with analysts predicting a potential drop to $94,000.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci, Bitcoin has lost its bullish momentum. On the daily chart, Bitcoin was trading below the FVRP intense swap zone at $95,000, indicating a loss of consensus value. When Bitcoin trades below this level, it suggests that prices are below a zone of heavy interest where most investors acquired it, potentially increasing selling pressure. This situation, combined with heavy spot resistance near the SMA50 at $105,000, makes an upward continuation unlikely in the near term.

Bitcoin recently failed to close above $105,000 for the second time, confirming it as short-term resistance. More critically, it closed below the SMA50 again, opening up the path for further losses. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to 41.59, well below the neutral 50 level, and is trending under its SMA14, reflecting increased seller control. If seller dominance continues to rise, so will the downside momentum, potentially leading to a drop to $94,000. This is because the VAL level in FRVP points to approximately $93-94,000.

Additionally, Open Interest and Price Change data from Checkonchain placed Bitcoin in a clear leveraged sell-off zone. This often signals weakening momentum and continued downside risk unless shorts get squeezed or spot buyers step in. Despite the recovery to $102,000, the downward momentum remains strong as investors have taken a step back in the market.

The on-chain story further supports a bearish case. Bitcoin’s NVT Ratio surged to 60.9, suggesting that the price is increasing without equivalent transactional volume. This indicates that the recent bounce lacks organic support. When NVT Ratios spike like this, it often indicates unsustainable price action—a warning of incoming retracement. Such a move could see Bitcoin drop to $97,917 before attempting another leg up. However, if short positions recorded over the past day continue to be squeezed, Bitcoin can recover and reclaim $104,000.