Bitcoin Drops 2.8% to $107,400 Despite $1 Billion ETF Inflow

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a notable decline, falling to $107,400 on Friday, despite a significant inflow of $1 billion into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over two days. This drop, amounting to 2.8%, occurred after Bitcoin faced strong resistance near the $110,500 level on Thursday. The market's reaction to this inflow was unexpected, as Bitcoin had been hovering around $107,400 for most of the prior week.

One possible explanation for the decline is profit-taking ahead of the weekend, given that Bitcoin was only 1.5% below its all-time high. Investors are also cautious about the potential negative effects of a global trade war, especially after the United States President reaffirmed the July 9 deadline for increasing import tariffs. This economic uncertainty could be weighing on investor sentiment and contributing to the price drop.

Another factor that may have spooked the market is the movement of a long-dormant Bitcoin wallet. Onchain analysts speculate that a miner from 2011 was behind Friday’s transfer of 80,009 BTC. This entity once held over 200,000 BTC, and the sudden movement of such a large amount of Bitcoin raised concerns among investors. However, large holders moving dormant coins is not unusual, and it is unlikely that the entity intended to sell all the coins at once, as that could draw attention and impact pricing.

Historically, large wallet transfers have not correlated with long-term trend reversals. In May 2025, addresses dating back to 2013 transferred over 3,420 BTC. In November 2024, another wallet moved 2,000 BTC that had been untouched for 14 years. Similar events occurred in March 2024, with 1,000 BTC, and in November 2023, with another 6,500 BTC. These movements did not result in long-term trend reversals, suggesting that the recent transfer may not have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price in the long run.

The most likely reason for Bitcoin's recent weakness is mounting macroeconomic concerns. According to the analyst's forecast, investors should reduce exposure if the S&P 500 approaches 6,300. The worsening fiscal outlook, including a $3.4 trillion fiscal package that cuts taxes, may dampen demand for long-term government bonds. This could in turn weigh on broader risk markets, including Bitcoin. Additionally, the Trump administration has begun sending notices to other nations setting unilateral tariff rates if trade deals are not reached before next Wednesday’s deadline. This economic uncertainty offers a more convincing explanation for Bitcoin’s inability to hold the $110,000 level.