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Bitcoin's recent price movements have been influenced more by large investors taking profits rather than broader economic concerns. Despite geopolitical tensions,
has managed to maintain its value above $100,000, indicating a shift in market dynamics. This resilience suggests that the market may have anticipated a resolution to the conflict based on historical political patterns.The recent pullback in Bitcoin's price was driven by large investors, or "whales," selling their holdings rather than by macroeconomic fears. On June 16, whales holding over 1,000 BTC deposited a significant amount of 20,000 BTC, leading to a breakdown below the $105,000 support level. This resulted in a 2.71% intraday drop the following day. However, the overall market sentiment remained stable, and the volatility was contained, leading to a relatively shallow pullback of 11%. This reinforces the idea that the market is experiencing a controlled cooldown rather than a deeper structural weakness.
Looking ahead, the expiration of the 90-day tariff pause on July 9 could introduce new volatility into the market. If new trade deals are not struck, the market will face a significant reset in global trade flows. Reciprocal tariffs will return, with the EU facing import tariffs up to 50%, China retaining 30%, and a global 10% baseline. This could stoke inflation through the third and fourth quarters, potentially blocking the Federal Reserve's path to even a single rate cut. As a result, large investors who remained composed during the war-driven FUD may adopt more reactive positioning, and Bitcoin's $100,000 level could face its most meaningful test yet, with heavier macroeconomic weight behind it this time.

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