Bitcoin Drops Below $100,000, Bearish Momentum Grows

Bitcoin has recently broken below a multi-week consolidation range, with the long-term trend remaining bullish despite weakening short- to mid-term momentum. The market is showing signs of lower highs and lower lows forming, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics.

The daily chart reveals a concerning picture for buyers, as Bitcoin was stuck in a tightening range for several weeks, forming a descending triangle. This structure briefly broke to the downside with a wick, as the price aggressively tested the demand zone between $98,000 and $100,000. This area had previously acted as a launchpad for the May rally. The reaction here has been sharp, with Bitcoin printing a long lower wick, indicating the presence of aggressive buyers. However, follow-through remains limited, and the daily candle closed back inside the pattern, suggesting that this behavior might just be a sell-side liquidity sweep.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has now dropped to the 40 level, hovering just above the oversold threshold. This isn’t yet bullish divergence, but it does show that momentum is no longer in the buyers’ favor. If the $98,000–$100,000 zone fails to hold on a closing basis, Bitcoin could quickly drop toward the next major support around $96,000, which also aligns with the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, and the lower boundary of the large ascending channel.

Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, the breakdown structure and how Bitcoin has been respecting bearish order flows become clear. After the sell-side liquidity grab just below $100,000, the price bounced sharply and filled the Fair Value Gap (FVG) that formed between $100,000 and $102,000. This FVG is now acting as resistance, capping any bullish attempts to push higher. There are two FVGs now in play: the recent one just above $100,000 and the older one near $106,000, which previously pushed the price lower. Unless Bitcoin reclaims the recent high near the $103,000 mark with conviction, it’s more likely to revisit lower support levels than to retest the $106,000 area.

The 4-hour RSI has bounced from oversold conditions (near 30) to the 40–45 range, indicating a short-term relief, but this is still far from a trend reversal. Market structure remains bearish with lower highs and lower lows being printed consistently since mid-June. In short, the 4-hour bias remains bearish below $103,000, and the price is currently trading inside a reaction zone. Bitcoin needs to break and close above this FVG for any potential reversal to gain momentum.

The on-chain landscape provides a bit of relief for long-term holders. The latest reading of the Miners’ Position Index (MPI) shows that miner selling pressure is minimal. Historically, elevated MPI values (above 2) have preceded strong market corrections, as miners tend to offload large amounts of Bitcoin into rallies. However, current MPI values remain well below 1, signaling that miners are holding their coins rather than selling them aggressively. This suggests that the recent drop is more likely driven by market structure, liquidity grabs, and short-term derivatives pressure, rather than long-term fundamental shifts. Combined with stable exchange reserves and growing accumulation wallets, the data leans neutral to slightly bullish from an on-chain perspective.