Bitcoin Drops 10% in 2025, Analysts Predict $155,000 Mid-Term
2min read Bitcoin, currently trading around $84,625, has experienced a 10% decline since the beginning of the year. Despite this, analysts remain optimistic about its potential to follow gold's recent upward trajectory, which has seen the precious metal reach new all-time highs of approximately $3,357 per ounce. This surge in gold prices has sparked discussions about whether Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold,” will follow a similar path.
Trading account Cryptollica has predicted that Bitcoin could break out of its current consolidation pattern and reach $155,000 in the mid-term. This prediction is based on historical patterns that show Bitcoin following gold’s price movements with a lag of 100-150 days. Joe Consorti, head of growth at Theya, noted that BTC typically follows gold’s directional bias with this delay. This correlation was evident in 2017 when Bitcoin rallied to $19,120 after gold experienced a 30% increase months earlier. A similar pattern emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic when gold reached approximately $2,075 in 2020, preceding Bitcoin’s surge to $69,000 in 2021.
Based on these historical patterns, some analysts project that Bitcoin could potentially reach new all-time highs between Q3 and Q4 of 2025. Despite not matching gold’s recent performance, Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience during the current macroeconomic storm. Both assets have weathered economic turbulence impressively well, with gold continuing to surge as investors flee to traditional safe-haven assets. Bitcoin initially sold off to $75,000 alongside risk assets but has since recovered, trading back up to around $85,000.
From a historical perspective, Bitcoin’s current price drawdown remains relatively modest at around 30% from its all-time high of $108,786 recorded in January 2025. During previous macroeconomic events, Bitcoin typically experienced greater than 50% sell-offs. The more modest current drawdown “highlights a degree of robustness of modern investor sentiment toward the asset during unfavorable conditions.” This relatively shallow correction of 33% is the smallest among past market cycles, with the deepest being 72% during the 2012-2014 bull market.
Bitcoin price performance has various potential tailwinds at its disposal, many of which have fueled bull runs in the past. These include a declining US Dollar Index (DXY) and all-time highs in the global M2 money supply. In a recent interview, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz described the current economic situation as a “Minsky Moment” for the US economy. He stated that Bitcoin thrives in market turbulence, driven by a weakening US dollar and capital flowing into safe havens like gold. Novogratz cautioned that rising interest rates and a weakening dollar signal that the US is behaving like an emerging market. He suggested that Bitcoin and gold reflect growing concerns over unsustainable deficits and the $35 trillion national debt.
Bitcoin appears to be forming a macro-bottom around early 2023, followed by a rejection at the range top in early 2024. Gold eventually broke out in the following months, while Bitcoin lagged slightly, breaking out around November 2024. According to anonymous Bitcoin proponent apsk32, Bitcoin will likely enter a parabolic phase in the latter half of 2025, with price targets potentially reaching as high as $400,000. The ongoing US-China trade war has also been a factor influencing both assets. While gold has continued to rise to new heights as a traditional safe haven, Bitcoin has demonstrated greater stability than in previous periods of geopolitical tension. As global economic uncertainty persists, both assets appear positioned to benefit from investors seeking alternatives to traditional currencies and markets.
