Bitcoin Drops 10% to $103,300 Ahead of FOMC Meeting

Bitcoin's price experienced a notable decline, dropping to $103,300 as traders adopted a risk-averse stance ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the subsequent interest rate decision. This correction follows a bearish weekly candle close, indicating a potential trend reversal. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, have further exacerbated the risk-off sentiment in the market.

According to Bitcoin Vector, a market pulse aggregator, the decline is not solely driven by macroeconomic factors. It also aligns with seasonal weakness and a decrease in onchain network growth, suggesting a cooling of spot demand. Over $434 million in BTC futures were liquidated in the past day, highlighting that the current move is largely driven by leverage, with traders opting for caution rather than new exposure.

Despite the decline, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index has remained positive for most of June, indicating steady spot demand from US investors. However, this demand has had a limited impact on price due to broader market caution. Profit-taking activity among mid-cycle holders (6–12 months) has been significant, with this cohort realizing $904 million in profits on Monday. This shift suggests a rotation in market dynamics, with more reactive participants securing gains during recent highs.

Long-term investor behavior, however, presents a more optimistic outlook. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted that long-term holders (LTHs) are still refraining from large-scale spending, a historically bullish pattern. A healthy MVRV Z-score and positive Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) momentum hint at selective profit-taking rather than panic. Similar setups in past cycles have preceded 18–25% rallies within 6–8 weeks, implying a potential $130,000 price target by the end of Q2.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin may be approaching a short-term bottom between $102,000 and $104,000, where a dense liquidity pocket and a historical order block intersect. The Bollinger Bands are also compressing, signaling an imminent volatility spike. A successful reclaim and close above $106,748 could validate a bullish mean reversion toward $112,000. Conversely, a clean break below $100,000 may invalidate the setup and target $98,000.

Data from Alphractal frames $98,300 as the key support where Short-Term Holders (STHs) remain in profit. Breaching this threshold could tilt the structure toward a deeper correction. As Alphractal noted, as long as Bitcoin stays above the STH Realized Price, the market can still be considered bullish. The scenario would only change if BTC loses the $98K level aggressively, which could trigger a deeper drop.