Bitcoin Drops 1.27% After US Iran Attack, Rebounds Quickly

Coin WorldMonday, Jun 23, 2025 11:07 am ET
2min read

On June 21, 2025, the US launched an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, causing a brief dip in Bitcoin's price. However, Bitcoin quickly rebounded, closing just under 1.27% below its pre-attack price. Over the course of 10 days in June, despite missiles flying and markets fluctuating, Bitcoin maintained its stability, showing resilience in the face of global chaos.

While it is natural to seek patterns and correlations, it is important to remember that correlation does not necessarily imply causation. The recent conflict in the Middle East did affect Bitcoin's price, but the drawdown was orderly and there was no panic or wipeout. By the end of the week, Bitcoin closed above six figures at $100,760, indicating that the most severe military escalation in the region in years moved the asset just 1.27% in 24 hours. This suggests that Bitcoin is not immune to war, but it is more stable than one might expect.

Bitcoin's price action has been affected by the recent conflict, but it often finds stability rather quickly. The 200-day moving average for BTC is around $95,567, which is a key long-term trend indicator that often provides market support and resistance levels for assets if the price dips drastically in the short term. While Bitcoin does show movement in response to news about political conflicts, other headlines may have more of an effect on BTC’s price volatility in the longer term.

Looking back to the start of 2025, macro-news headlines from the United States seem to show more of a correlation with Bitcoin's price than the recent Iran-Israel conflict. For example, the swearing in of US President Donald Trump on Jan. 20, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core CPI rising to 3.0% and 3.3% respectively on Feb. 12, and the Federal Reserve's rate pause and GDP forecast cut on March 19 all had an impact on Bitcoin's price. Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held interest rates steady but lowered the GDP forecast to 1.4% and raised inflation projections to 3% on Tuesday and Wednesday, which moved Bitcoin over six months more than any single missile launch.

Bitcoin has historically trended positively during periods of geopolitical turmoil. During major events like the US–Iran tensions in 2020, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and now the Iran–Israel conflict of 2025, Bitcoin has shown upward movement or remarkable price stability. While it does not act like a traditional safe haven, it often behaves like an uncorrelated hedge in systemic uncertainty. BlackRock’s 2024 report reinforced this, showing that Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 and gold during several past geopolitical shocks. Their chart highlights Bitcoin’s unique behavior during crises: While equities dipped and gold oscillated, Bitcoin frequently trended upward. That pattern did not break in June 2025. It did not surge, but it also did not break the trend.

When Bitcoin moved during the recent Iran-Israel conflict, it did not respond to ideology. It was reacting to liquidation and flow. Traders sold into uncertainty, while others bought the dip. ETF demand continued and the

held. The recent Iran-Israel conflict headlines tested Bitcoin’s resilience. It was a real-world stress test that did not result in technical breakdown or institutional flight. That’s not bullish in a hyped sense; it’s bullish in a structural sense. The asset did not flinch when the world briefly tilted toward catastrophe, but that tilt is far from over. Black swan events can affect all asset classes and provide investors with potential positive entries. Gauging if the news effect will be short, medium or long-lived is a tricky question to answer.