Bitcoin Drops 1.22% in July, Analysts Eye 7.56% Mean Return

Bitcoin closed June below its final weekly resistance, sitting around $106,537. This position follows a close at $107,700 in June, with prices currently around $106,537. The major resistance zone between $108,000 and $110,000 presents a barrier to further gains. Analysts emphasize Bitcoin’s historical tendency for greater volatility in July. June has historically been a slow month for Bitcoin, with spot prices fluctuating within a narrow range and ending the month with minimal change. July, on the other hand, has shown a more positive trend. Over the past twelve years, the mean return for July is +7.56%.

Bitcoin's close below $108,000 could impact short-term sentiment, though historical data suggests potential upward movement. Analysts monitor for volatility spikes expected in July. Despite no official comments from major figures, experts highlight the lack of systemic risk indicators, reinforcing a cautious but optimistic outlook among stakeholders. At present, market capitalization stands at $2.11 trillion. BTC's volatility this year is 18.37%, indicating resilience relative to other cryptocurrencies. The broader market’s reaction remains subdued, lacking large-scale sell-offs or DeFi liquidity shifts, with experts anticipating a continuation of historical July trends.

Market analysts suggest that Bitcoin's RSI currently showing moderate bullish momentum implies potential July improvements. Historical trends reveal mean returns of +7.56% for July, underscoring anticipation for recurrent positive price action. Bitcoin's price has been fluctuating around the $107,000 mark, with the cryptocurrency trading below a key resistance level of $108,890. The weekly candle closed at $108,380, just shy of this critical threshold. This resistance level has been a significant barrier for Bitcoin, and a break above it could signal a continuation of the uptrend. However, the cryptocurrency has struggled to maintain momentum, with a 1.22% drop to $105,905 on July 1 after losing support above the $107,000 level. This decline came amid heightened legislative activity in the U.S., which may have contributed to the market's caution.

Technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin could test resistance levels between $108,000 and $110,000 in the near term. A successful breakout above $110,000 could pave the way for further gains, potentially reaching new all-time highs. However, the cryptocurrency has been trading in a sideways range between $103,000 and $110,000 since mid-June, with the yellow resistance zone from $109,000 to $110,500 acting as a significant barrier. On the downside, $100,000 serves as critical support, with any sustained break below this level risking a deeper drop to the $92,000 zone. Momentum indicators present a mixed picture, with the RSI neutral around 58, while the MACD and Stochastic RSI suggest cooling bullish pressure. The ADX reading of 13.6 signals weak trend strength, reinforcing the idea of near-term consolidation. On-chain trends remain supportive, with rising ETF inflows and exchange outflows hinting at institutional accumulation. However, profit-taking and macro uncertainty continue to weigh on short-term sentiment.

Key levels to watch for Bitcoin include resistance at $107,000 and $112,000, with support at $100,000 and $92,000. A close above $107,000 could reignite bullish momentum and set the stage for new highs. Conversely, losing $100,000 would likely invite further downside. With Bitcoin at a technical crossroads, traders are watching closely for confirmation of the next major move. Analysts predict that Bitcoin could reach a new peak as early as July, with $108,900 identified as the final significant resistance standing in the way of a potential rally. However, the cryptocurrency's price has been volatile, with a 10% surge in three days followed by a pullback to the $107,000 level. This volatility has been driven by a range of factors, including legislative activity in the U.S. and investor caution ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline.