Bitcoin Drops 0.1% to $84,596 Amid Investor Hesitancy

Bitcoin has been trading near the $84,000 mark, showing limited upward momentum. At the time of writing, the asset is trading at $84,596, down 0.1% in the last 24 hours. This places BTC approximately 22% below its all-time high of over $109,000 set earlier this year.

The price action follows a recovery from earlier lows but remains range-bound, suggesting hesitancy among investors as macroeconomic uncertainties persist. One of the emerging observations comes from CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan, who compared Bitcoin’s current behavior to past correction cycles.

According to Dan, one reliable gauge of market overheating is the percentage of Bitcoin supply held for one week to one month. When this metric rises, it often signals speculative enthusiasm, which can precede corrections. During previous bullish phases, such increases in short-term holdings were followed by pullbacks, marking peaks in investor exuberance.

In the current cycle, Dan notes that this metric has once again reached a region previously associated with market bottoms—the same yellow box that aligned with the 2024 correction low. Based on this, he posits that speculative excesses have largely subsided, opening the door to renewed price growth if macroeconomic conditions continue to improve. However, he also emphasized that further consolidation may still occur before a broader trend shift materializes.

Complementing this analysis, CryptoQuant contributor Mignolet pointed out a notable shift in coin movement behavior. In a separate post, he observed that around 170,000 BTC recently moved from the 3–6 month holding cohort. This group typically includes mid-term holders, and substantial activity from them has historically preceded increased price volatility.

Mignolet illustrated his findings with data, noting that such movements have often signaled major price action, both upward and downward. Green box indicators on his chart marked rallies, while red boxes highlighted periods of decline. While the direction remains uncertain, he highlighted that the increased activity is an early warning sign that traders should be alert for a breakout or breakdown in the near future.

According to the analyst's forecast, the current market will follow a similar path as the 2024 correction. This suggests that Bitcoin's price could experience a significant breakout in 2025, mirroring the bullish trend seen in the previous year. However, it is important to note that this is a forecast and not a guarantee of future price movements.