Bitcoin May Double to $170,000 in Perfect Storm Phase

Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas has suggested that Bitcoin could be entering the “perfect storm” phase of its four-year cycle. Loukas believes that the current cycle, which began with the November 2022 low, is nearing its climactic phase. He describes this phase as the most bullish part of the four-year cycle, where the asset is on the cusp of the blowoff phase.

Loukas attributes this unique cycle to a combination of maturing fundamentals and a confluence of macro, institutional, and regulatory forces. These forces include continued ETF inflows, corporate treasury adoption, and a radical policy shift under the Trump administration, including what he anticipates may be a pro-crypto Fed chair appointment. These factors are creating what he calls a “perfect storm” for price expansion.

Loukas is cautious about providing hard price targets but acknowledges a doubling effect that could send Bitcoin from its current range near $110,000 to as high as $150,000–$170,000 in the short term. Historically, such phases have seen Bitcoin double in a matter of months once new highs are breached. Loukas points to prior legs of the cycle where Bitcoin surged from $25K to $75K or $50K to $100K within five-month windows.

Loukas introduces a more complex structure he calls a “double cycle blowoff.” He describes this as a fusion of two adjacent four-year cycle peaks — a concept that could delay the market top to as late as February or March 2026, well beyond the traditional 35-month cycle peak window. This scenario, while still within the broader cyclical rhythm, would imply a 39–41 month uptrend rather than the typical 33–35 months. Loukas notes that this is 15–16 years into Bitcoin’s adoption, referencing the arc from early tech believers to deep institutional penetration.

The implications of a delayed peak are significant. It could mean a much shorter corrective phase — or even the emergence of a second explosive rally as the next cycle begins, creating what Loukas describes as the illusion of one extended supercycle. Loukas warns that many may be caught off guard by the significant upside potential still to come in this cycle.

Loukas also addresses the broader sentiment picture, noting that the typical mania — the kind that marked tops in 2017 and late 2021 — has not yet materialized. He sees this as further evidence that the final phase is still ahead. Regarding the price target for a supercycle, Loukas ponders that he can see numbers in the quarter of a million level. He also sees some really crazy numbers when you see prior manias and bubbles in different asset classes, seeing a 5x, 6x, 7x move from here over a 2-year period in a major mania is not really a stretch. Even from a market cap perspective, it’s not a stretch, seeing where gold is already heading through the $20 trillion level and well beyond.

While he emphasizes that these ideas are probabilistic and not predictions, Loukas does warn of the long-term consequences if his double-cycle thesis plays out. A massive influx of institutional capital, sovereign interest, and retail mania could ultimately trigger Bitcoin’s first true secular bear market, one not measured in months but in years. Loukas notes that if you consider a mania leadup where so many treasury companies and traditional flows come together and peak… the unwinding process just takes a lot longer.

For now, Loukas’ model portfolio remains partially in cash after trimming some positions near recent highs, reflecting a conservative approach tailored to capital preservation. Still, he acknowledges that younger or more risk-tolerant investors may view this moment as a final accumulation window before the next phase begins. Loukas quips that this video is very, very bullish.