Bitcoin Dominance Surges to 65% as Altcoins Struggle

Bitcoin Dominance has surged past 65%, reaching its highest level since 2021, signaling continued investor preference for BTC. This surge reflects strong long-term confidence in Bitcoin from both retail and institutional investors, as the index has risen for seven consecutive quarters without a single quarterly correction. The Altcoin Season Index has dropped to 12, its lowest in two years, suggesting altcoins are deeply underperforming Bitcoin. This index tracks whether altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days, and a score of 75 or higher typically signals an altcoin season. The current reading is far from that threshold, indicating a challenging environment for altcoins.

Analysts expect Bitcoin’s dominance to peak near 71%, which may precede another sharp correction in altcoins, as seen in February 2025. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital made a bold prediction that Bitcoin Dominance could rise to 71% in the near future. If that happens, it could trigger a sharp correction in the altcoin market. A similar scenario played out in February 2025, when Bitcoin’s dominance peaked and led to steep declines in many major altcoins. In February 2025, the altcoin market cap (TOTAL2) fell from $1.4 trillion to $1 trillion. If Rekt Capital’s prediction holds true, the altcoin market cap could drop below $700 billion. Nic, Co-founder of CoinBureau, also suggested that BTC.D could rise to 70%—a prediction close to Rekt Capital’s. Raoul Pal, Founder and CEO of RealVision, shared the same outlook. He believes altcoins will bleed more than Bitcoin during any correction.

The rising tensions between the US and Iran, marked by airstrikes and threats of larger military deployments from President Trump, have caused unexpected market volatility. Although leaders in the crypto industry remain optimistic, their sentiment does not extend to altcoins. Renowned crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out an interesting pattern. In recent years, the Altcoin Season Index has tended to bottom out in June or July. This suggests a seasonal trend: investors tend to shift capital into Bitcoin at the start of summer, and then potentially rotate back into altcoins in July or August. Analyst 0xNobler also believes altcoin seasons typically begin in the summer. This aligns with the previous predictions that Bitcoin Dominance may still rise to 71% before undergoing any correction. Therefore, these analysts say patience is key for altcoin investors, despite surprises from ongoing geopolitical conflicts.

However, a recent report highlighted several reasons why the altcoin winter could last longer. And even if an altcoin season does occur, it may not benefit every project currently on the market. The current surge in Bitcoin Dominance above 65% and the historic low in the Altcoin Season Index underscore a challenging environment for altcoins in mid-2025. While expert forecasts suggest Bitcoin’s dominance may peak near 71%, potentially triggering altcoin corrections similar to February 2025, seasonal patterns indicate a possible altcoin resurgence later in the summer. Investors should remain cautious and patient, focusing on market fundamentals and geopolitical developments that continue to influence crypto asset allocation. Strategic portfolio management and awareness of these trends will be essential for navigating the evolving crypto landscape.