Bitcoin Dominance Hits 64.98% in May, Sparking Altcoin Season Debate

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) reached 64.98% in the first week of May, marking a new high for 2025 and the highest level since 2021. Bitcoin Dominance measures BTC’s market cap as a percentage of the total crypto market cap. This significant milestone has sparked debate among analysts about the potential timing of an altcoin season.

Analysts have long monitored BTC.D as a key indicator for predicting altcoin season. The 65% level also represents a significant historical resistance, a threshold many analysts have been watching closely. Analyst Darky believes that 65% could be the top for BTC.D and expects a sharp drop from this point. If that happens, it would suggest that altcoins are about to rally. An altcoin season typically begins when capital rotates from Bitcoin into altcoins, eventually driving BTC.D down to the support zone around 39%.

Beyond the technical signal that 65% is a strong resistance, some analysts also point to a rising wedge pattern forming in BTC.D. This classical chart pattern usually signals a bearish reversal, supporting the scenario of a strong pullback in Bitcoin dominance. Other analysts also support the idea of an upcoming altcoin season but take a more cautious stance. Milk Road, for example, argues that altcoins are still underperforming and suggests BTC.D may need to rise above 70% before an actual rotation into altcoins begins.

BTC.D rose from 64.4% to 65% in the first week of May, while the total market cap dropped from $3 trillion to $2.87 trillion. This suggests capital is exiting the market more from altcoins than from Bitcoin, which does not yet support the case for a true altcoin season. Over the past three years, BTC.D has steadily climbed from 39% to 65%. During this time, most predictions of an altcoin season have turned out to be inaccurate and disappointing. As a result, many investors have suffered deeper losses in their altcoin portfolios.

This prolonged rise in BTC.D has sparked growing skepticism. And some of these doubts come with valid arguments. Thomas Fahrer, co-founder of Apollo, believes the involvement of institutional investors has fundamentally changed the cycle. “BTC Dominance just made a new cycle ATH. This cycle is different because when BlackRock & Saylor buy Bitcoin they just hold it. They don’t swap them for altcoins,” Thomas Fahrer said.

Nic, co-founder of Coinbase, offered deeper insights. He argued that predicting altcoin season involves more than just tracking BTC.D. Other macro and on-chain factors must align. He pointed out that historically, altcoin seasons tend to begin around 320 days after a Bitcoin bottom, which would place them around now (May 2025). However, conditions such as quantitative easing, retail investor interest in altcoins, and blockchain developer activity have not yet been met. “What needs to happen before the real altseason begins: BTC dominance falls below 54%. The Fed officially ends QT and signals rate cuts. Bitcoin holds a new ATH while capital flows into alts — not away from them. Until then? I’m thinking every pump is just noise,” Nic predicted.

At the time of writing, the total market cap of altcoins excluding stablecoins (TOTAL3) is $807 billion, down 28% from the beginning of the year. The debate among analysts continues, with some optimistic about an impending altcoin season and others remaining cautious, awaiting more definitive signals from the market.