Bitcoin's Divergence from US Dollar, NASDAQ Signals Safe-Haven Shift

Bitcoin’s recent divergence from traditional markets, such as the US Dollar and NASDAQ, suggests a shift in its role as a safe-haven asset. Historically, Bitcoin and the DXY Index (US Dollar Index) have moved in opposite directions, but from September 2024 to March 2025, they moved in tandem. This correlation broke in April when the US announced a new tariff policy, indicating a potential return to the inverse relationship. This divergence may reflect investors turning to Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainty caused by the tariffs.

Another key divergence comes from the separation between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ Index. Historically, Bitcoin closely followed the NASDAQ due to its ties to tech and macroeconomic sentiment. However, in April 2025, Bitcoin started showing independent growth, no longer moving in sync with the NASDAQ. This suggests that Bitcoin is cementing its role as a standalone asset less tied to traditional markets.

Data from CryptoQuant highlights another divergence—this time in investor behavior. Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH, those who’ve held BTC for over 155 days) began accumulating again after the recent local peak. In contrast, short-term holders (STH) are selling off. This divergence often signals the early stage of a re-accumulation phase and hints at a future price rebound. LTH behavior is generally associated with macro conviction, not speculative moves. STH activity is often emotional and reactive. When LTH accumulation meets STH capitulation, it tends to signal early stages of a re-accumulation phase.

Divergence signals also appeared for altcoins, indicating a positive short-term outlook. Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Realvision, pointed to a key divergence using the “365-day new lows” indicator. This metric tracks how many altcoins hit their lowest point in the past year. In April 2025, although altcoin market capitalization dropped to a new low, the number of altcoins hitting new 365-day lows decreased significantly. Historically, this pattern often precedes a recovery in altcoin market caps. This suggests that negative market sentiment is weakening and that altcoins may be gearing up for a recovery—or even an “altcoin season,” a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin.

Another technical divergence comes from the RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the Bitcoin Dominance chart (BTC.D). This technical divergence suggests BTC.D might soon undergo a strong correction. If that happens, investors may shift more capital into altcoins. The altcoin market cap (TOTAL3) rebounded by 20% in April, from $660 billion to over $800 billion. The divergence signals discussed above suggest that this recovery could continue.

As the crypto market showcases various divergence signals across Bitcoin and altcoins, these trends indicate potential opportunities for investors looking to navigate the shifting landscape. The evolving dynamics suggest a distinct possibility of altcoin season emerging in the near future, highlighting the importance of vigilant monitoring of market indicators.